2025 Rookie Profiles: Wide Receiver Tier 1 & 2
The 1st of 3 Rookie WR Profiles Articles - Tier 1 and 2.
With just a few days left until the NFL draft, we move on to the top of the WR class. This is tier 1 and 2 at the position, which consists of just the top 4 WRs.
I want to make a note that throughout the WR Profiles, you will see a lot of data points and reference’s to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. Matt is one of the most well-respected and successful WR film grinders in this space, so I outsource a lot of my film takes to him. You may see references to Lance Zierlein’s film grades as well, another highly-respected film guy.
Using my findings within the data along with these guys top-notch film breakdowns should give you an awesome outlook on the 2025 rookie WR class. Super excited to dive in to the top of said WR class, so let’s dive in!
Tier 1
WR1: Tetairoa McMillan
The Good: Tet is an absolute unit, standing at 6’4” and just shy of 220 pounds. He paired his hulking frame with some elite production at the University of Arizona. Right out of the gate as a 19 year old freshman, Tet broke-out with over 700 yards and 8 TDs. In his following two seasons, the early declare cleared 80+ receptions and 1,300 receiving yards on elite efficiency, crossing 2.75 YPRR in both of said seasons. His career 44.4% dominator rating and 30.9% target share both clear the 90th percentile of WRs.
One of Tet’s advantages is his ability to win in the air. In 2024, he was 5th in the nation in contested catches (18) on a very healthy 60% contested catch rate. He’s both acrobatic and powerful when competing at the catch-point.
While many worry about Tet’s athleticism and ability to separate, those concerns seem somewhat overblown. Tet is actually very good after the catch, forcing a 0.35 MTF/Rec rate in 2024 which is among the best in this class. Per Reception Perception, Tet is also a “good enough” separator, coming in at 59th percentile vs. man and 60th percentile vs. zone. He’s also an 80th percentile separator vs. press coverage. Combine the ability to separate with his contested catch and YAC capabilities, and you’ve got yourself a high-floor/high-ceiling prospect.
The Bad: Contrary to the above, Tet still does have some speed and separation concerns. He lacks top-end speed, with just a 4.53 40-time. This was also represented in his struggles to separate on “Go” routes, as his 48.7% success rate on these is well below average.
In 2024, Tet’s 23.08% contested target rate was 5th highest of 32 WRs in this class, furthering the concerns on his ability to separate deep and vs. man. This could partially be attributed his downfield heavy role (13.7% rate of go routes), but it’s a bit concerning nonetheless.
In Tet’s first 2 seasons, he converted on just 24 of his 56 contested catch opportunities (42.8%), which gives you some pause on whether his contested catch ability will be truly elite at the next level. I don’t think this is really worrisome for Tet, but I’d be remiss not to mention it.
FF Summary: Tet may come off as your typical “X” receiver, but is his surprising ability after the catch and his lack of separation capability on vertical routes suggests that he might be best deployed across a variety of WR roles. He has a good chance to come into the league as one of the better contested catch threats right from the jump, pairing that with some real juice after the catch.
I think the floor for Tet is pretty high due to the above. Whether he turns into Drake London/Tee Higgins or more of a Courtland Sutton/Michael Pittman type will come down to how well he develops as a route runner. Nonetheless, he seems very likely to have a long productive career due to his rare size and skillset combo.
Tet is currently my 1.02 in 1QB rookie drafts, after only Ashton Jeanty. He’s someone I’m very comfortable betting on for both floor and ceiling outcomes. In best ball drafts, his price of WR28 is a target for me. We’ll see where he lands, but he has a strong chance to come in and earn a massive role right off the bat. He easily has top-12 upside in year 1.