2025 Rookie Profiles: Wide Receiver Tier 3
Part 2 of the Rookie WR Profiles Series - Tier 3.
After going through the top 4 of this WR class, we now move to Tier 3 (WR5-10). These guys have some fun upside and high-end traits, but also their fair share of legitimate question marks.
Part 3 of the WR profiles, highlighting tier 4 and 5 receivers, will be out tomorrow.
Tier 3
WR5: Tre Harris
The Good: Tre Harris is an analytics darling. This past season, he posted an unreal 5.12 YPRR and 37.9% TPRR, both easily leading the 2025 class. His career numbers are similarly strong, with a 3.00 YPRR leading the class and a 27.7% TPRR which is 4th best in the class. His career 124.9 passer rating when targeted is 3rd best in the 2025 class.
Harris is a big body, clearing 6’2” and 205 pounds. He posted a strong 9.18 RAS with elite explosion testing grades, resulting in 81st percentile burst score. Pair this with Harris’ man-beating ability, and you have the makings of a legitimate “X” WR at the next level.
Speaking of man-beating, that is Tre Harris’ forte. He posted a ridiculous 10.47 YPRR against man in 2024, leading the next closest WR by 5 yards per route run. Just stupid stuff. Per Reception Perception, Tre Harris is a 74th percentile man-beater and 78th percentile press coverage-beater, both very encouraging marks.
Harris was outrageously successful on go routes, as well as slants and curls. He averaged over one deep reception (20+ air yards) per game in 2024, among the best in the country. He possesses a lot of the tools to be an NFL “X” WR, and should get a legitimate opportunity to prove himself early on.
The Bad: Harris has some serious question marks surrounding his game. He ran a very limited route tree at the collegiate level, essentially running no out-breaking routes. While this was scheme-related, we don’t really have a sample on whether or not Harris can succeed on these at the next level.
Furthermore, per Reception Perception, Harris posted just a 24th percentile success rate vs. zone. If he wants to be legitimate NFL WR, this skillset needs to improve.
On top of the technical stuff, it also took Tre Harris quite a while to breakout against not elite competition. Attending Louisiana Tech, it took Harris until his 3rd year to cross 600 yards (or a 2.25 YPRR). Harris heads into the NFL on the older side, as a 23 year old rookie.
FF Summary: Harris feels pretty boom/bust as a prospect. He has the efficiency and the man-beating chops to be a legitimate “X”, but will need to improve against zone and prove that he can develop into a full route tree.
Because of the tantalizing upside as hopefully an AJ Brown-lite or less explosive DK Metcalf, I rank Harris slightly above consensus as the WR5 (consensus WR6). I’m comfortable selecting him in the 2nd round of rookie drafts, and will also be taking shots on him in best ball drafts at his current price as the WR62.
WR6: Matthew Golden
The Good: Golden has been one of the top risers throughout the draft process, now fully expected to acquire round 1 (and possibly even top 15) draft capital. I’m not huge on Golden due to the numbers, but several film grinders have given him credit, so I have to acknowledge that he’s likely better than the numbers suggest. He’s Lance Zierlien’s 3rd highest graded WR, and his Reception Perception profile is definitely more positive than the analytics are.
Golden blew up in the back half of the 2024 season, posting 3.18 YPRR from week 13 onward. Mind you, this was against the best competition in the country. He put up 162 yards against Georgia in the SEC championship, and followed that up with 149 yards in the CFP against Arizona State.
On top of the above, Golden ran an electric 4.29 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. This elite speed contributes to the upside case.
The Bad: Golden has a lot of analytical red flags, especially so for a likely 1st round draft pick. See below for some of his putrid career numbers:
1.85 YPRR (29th/32 WR prospects)
8.9% 1D/RR (28th)
18.8% TPRR (dead last)
Even in his “breakout” 2024 year, he posted just a 2.10 YPRR (23rd among prospects) and just a 75.6 PFF receiving grade (also 23rd). In Golden’s first 2 years at Houston, he did not cross 590 receiving yards or a 1.7 YPRR.
Golden posted a 35th percentile dominator rating and 41st percentile target share. He simply just did not produce like a 1st round WR by any stretch of the imagination. To that point, not all top-tier film guys are drooling over this guy. Fantasy Points’ Brett Whitfield has concerns about the tape. Golden gets a lot of praise for his ability to separate, but his 21.69% contested target rate is 8th worst in this class and contradicts said separation ability.
Despite his speed, Golden was also not an elite YAC guy in college. He forced just 0.19 MTF/Rec and a career 5.6 YAC/Rec.
FF Summary: Golden is a guy I’m definitely lower on than consensus. His lack of production throughout his career, and even in his best season, is very concerning. He may end up being a better real life WR than I’m anticipating, but I’m not expecting him to live up to his round 1 draft capital from a fantasy perspective.
I’m out on Golden at his late round 1 price in 1QB rookie drafts, as I see better values at both WR and other positions. I’m similarly out on Golden’s WR44 price in best ball, one that’s also likely to rise post NFL draft considering his likely capital.