Divisional Round: Sunday Slate

In-depth breakdown of the Divisional Round Sunday Slate.

Continuing on to day 2 of the Divisional Round, we start with the Houston Texans travelling to New England to take on the Patriots. The Patriots have been one of the best offenses in the NFL (3rd in offensive EPA/Play since Wk9), but this is another very tough test on the defensive side of the ball in the Texans (2nd in defensive EPA/Play). They had some ups and downs before ultimately breezing by the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, but this again will be a tougher test against arguably the best defense in the NFL. On the Texans end, they had a similar path against a Steelers team that did not put up much of a fight. They dominated defensively, but struggled on offense for a decent portion of the game. And with Nico Collins out, getting their offense back on track will be an even tougher task. Both offenses will need to ascend if they want to advance.

To round out the Divisional Round, we get an exciting game between the home underdog Bears and the Los Angeles Rams (who struggled with Carolina in the WC Round). The Rams have been mostly a juggernaut offensively this year (2nd in offensive EPA/Play), so they should be able to get back on track against the weaker Bears defense (18th in EPA/Play). Defensively, the Rams started off the season really strong, but they’ve since fallen off a cliff down the stretch of the season (21st in defensive EPA/Play since Wk13). The Bears offense has been inconsistent at times, but they’ve been a strong offensive overall (8th in EPA/Play, 12th in success rate).

Let’s get into the matchups and see how the rest of the Divisional Round will shake out!

Note: Scroll to the bottom if you just want to check the game prediction, as well as my favorite props, anytime TDs, and DFS plays!

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HOU Texans @ NE Patriots: Sun, 3pm EST

Overall Matchup

Patriots

• The Pats are getting battle tested offensively in these playoffs. After facing a top defense in the Chargers last weekend, they now get arguably the best defense in the NFL in the Texans (2nd in EPA/Play).

• In terms of pass defense, the Texans are leading the NFL in EPA/DB and they’re 2nd in DB success rate. They are also leading the NFL in ANY/A (4.06), top 4 in interceptions and 2nd in sack rate (9.7%). They’re a disruptive and lock-down pass defense. With Stingley on the outside, they are 4th in the NFL in both YPG and completions to the perimeter.

• The Texans, however, have been a bit of a slot funnel. They are bottom 7 in both YPG and completions allowed to the slot.

• The Texans should run a lot of Cover 4 and 6, as they do so consistently over a 30% rate and they’ve been above a 40% rate in 3 of their last 4 games. Maye remains moderately efficient against these, but he does drop down to 14th among QBs in ANY/A (and 6th in YPA).

• We mentioned the Texans ability to get pressure, and that’s backed up by their 2nd best pressure rate. Fortunately for Maye, he’s been the best QB in the NFL when pressured, leading all QBs in EPA and yards per attempt, while 2nd in ANY/A. He obviously still takes a dip on his overall efficiency when pressured, but this is a good sign he can withstand the elite Texans pass rush.

• Overall though, this matchup is about as tough as it gets. I question how much success Maye and co. will have through the air, and I think their best bet might be trying to attack Houston on the ground.

• On the ground, the Patriots are much improved over the course of the season, going from one of the worst rushing attacks to top 3 in EPA/Rush and 2nd in YPC since Week 13. The combo of TreVeyon Henderson coming along and Rhamondre Stevenson turning it on, with strong offensive line play, have really turned things around.

• While the matchup is certainly not easy, I think the Texans are just a bit more vulnerable on the ground than they are through the air. And that’s really mostly a testament to the overall defensive strength. Since Week 10, the Texans are outside the top 12 in YPC allowed (4.14) and explosive rush yards allowed (200). Again, they are still a strong unit (top 3 in success rate and YBCo/att), but not impenetrable.

• One area in particular they’ve been more vulnerable is runs on the interior (A/B gaps). Since Week 10, they are bottom 10 in YPC allowed to these runs, while allowing the 7th most explosive rush yards. The Patriots are easily leading the NFL in YPC and explosive rate on inside runs over the past 7 weeks.

Texans

• The Texans get a revamped New England Patriots defense, one that is healthy for the 1st time since the middle of the season. They displayed their elite group last week, albeit against a broken Chargers offense, generating a ridiculous 63.6% pressure rate and allowing sub-4 YPC. With Nico Collins out due to a concussion, this offense is already at a major disadvantage without their best player on that side of the ball.

• While the Pats were struggling lately due to injury against the run, they’ve remained elite against the pass. They are 9th in EPA/DB since Week 10, while all the way up at 2nd best in yard per pass attempt allowed.

• We should see a lot of 2-high looks from New England, as well as a lot of man coverage. In terms of safety looks, NE ping-pongs depending on matchup, which would lead to a heavy 2-high approach as the Texans offense averages the 3rd highest rate of 2-high looks faced. In terms of coverage, New England runs man at the 6th highest rate since Week 11, and Houston sees man at the 5th highest rate in that same time frame. Unfortunately for Stroud, he struggles against 2-high looks a good bit, dipping from 6.43→5.47 ANY/A.

• The Patriots also do a really good job limiting the deep ball (2nd fewest deep YPG allowed in NFL), while Stroud is top 15 in deep YPG. And they similarly limit under-center passing (10th fewest under-center YPA allowed), while the Texans are 8th in under-center passing YPG.

• New England is a tough pass defense in general, and they should do a good job putting out conservative 2-high safety looks to limit Stroud and this Nico Collins-less pass game.

• On the ground, I’m not expecting much more success for Houston. They have one of the worst run games in the NFL (29th in EPA/Rush, 27th in YPC). And while New England’s run game numbers are down in recent weeks, it’s largely due to the injuries they suffered in the back half of the season. They proved their strength in Week 18 and the Wild Card game with their regained health, allowing 3.19 YPC in this time.

• When healthy, this Pats rush defense allows a very low yards per carry (3.81, 4th lowest), YBCo/Att (1.40, 5th lowest) and a sub-3% explosive rate (9th lowest). The Texans abysmal run game should have problems with this tough front.

• The Patriots are also strong vs. gap concepts (4th lowest YPC) and inside runs (single fewest YPC) when healthy (Wk1-11 + past 2 weeks), which Houston runs both of at top 10 rates.

• I expect minimal efficiency from Marks and whoever is getting carries alongside him (likely Chubb) in this one.

Player Matchups