Opening 2026 potential ADP BUSTS on Underdog

2026 Best Ball has already started — Who are the worst values right now?

Building off of my article from Sunday, 2026 ADP Values, I wanted to take you guys through what I believe are currently the worst values in drafts to open 2026 drafting season.

Let’s get into it!

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Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and if you’re interested in buying, use code DATAROMA at checkout for 15% off!

Running Back

James Cook (RB5, 10.5 ADP - Late Round 1)

James Cook finished the 2025 season as the RB6 in FP/G, building off the back of another really impressive season in 2024 (RB11). However, as the RB5 in 2026 ADP, I’m afraid he’s priced at his absolute ceiling. Cook is a very talented runner in what should be an elite environment, but his role in the Bills offense leaves much to be desired for a 1st round fantasy pick. He has a very limited role as a pass-catcher (less than 35 receptions in each of last 2 seasons), and cedes a bunch of goal-line rushing work to his QB (39th! among RBs in inside the 5 rush share at just 37.1%). He’s got the big-play ability and environment to reach back-end RB1 numbers, but top 5 at the position feels like a nearly impossible task.

Chase Brown (RB12, 23.5 ADP - Late Round 2)

I feel like I’m missing something here with Chase Brown. While he put up some big fantasy performances down the stretch, it’s impossible to ignore the usage issues. Splitting work with Samaje Perine, Brown was below a 60% rush share (56%) and 45% goal line rush share (37.5%, tied w/ Perine) from Week 6 on (excluding the games Perine was injured). He got there on receiving work and what I see as fluky TD production.

If Brown was ceding meaningful work to Perine, he also seems very live to cede even more work to a potential incoming rookie or free agent RB. He’s a fine RB, but he’s not a good enough talent OR volume based bet at this really expensive cost.

Bucky Irving (RB14, 29.2 ADP - Mid Round 2)

Bucky really regressed in year 2. I’m not saying this was all his fault, but he certainly did not look like the rookie year version of himself. He didn’t display that same level of tackle-breaking (0.25→0.13 MTF/Att) or big-play creation from year 1 (6.7%→2.3% explosive rate). The declining offensive environment certainly played a part, but Bucky was struggling even when the offense was firing on all cylinders early on. And that offensive environment being potentially worse is not good news for Bucky in itself, as efficiency and TD equity will suffer. I would also expect the Bucs to either bring in a replacement for Rachaad White’s role, or promote Sean Tucker to more consistent usage. Nonetheless, Bucky is a day 3 back that just give us pretty poor play in year 2. That’s a dangerous bet at this cost.

Cam Skattebo (RB19, 42.3 ADP - Mid Round 4)

I was a big fan of Skatt as a prospect and in fantasy drafts last year, but this price is just too expensive for what I’m expecting in 2026. For one, the obvious issue that is his ankle injury. Skattebo is a slower back to begin with that relies heavily on agility and power, which I’m nervous will be zapped in his 1st season following this major ankle injury. I expect Tyrone Tracy, who the team was reluctant to move away from even after Skattebo started performing well, could factor in more than many are expecting from how I see it. Granted, it’s a new staff, but Tracy is enough of a guy to take away meaningful work. Especially so if Skattebo is not looking like his former self.

TreVeyon Henderson (RB20, 44.9 ADP - Late Round 4)

This is a tough one, as Henderson showed some elite flashes in 2025. However, after temporarily taking the 1A role from Rhamondre, he managed to actually give it back to him. And now, heading into the Super Bowl, Henderson is almost a complete afterthought in this offense. Not a good sign for the rookie.

Henderson also has had a lot of issues in his rookie year. He’s consistently missed holes, and has struggled to make defenders miss (0.12 MTF/Att was 38th among 49 RBs) and play through contact (1.87 YACo/Att was 44th among 49 RBs). Frankly, for the majority of the season, Rhamondre was just better. And down the stretch of the season, that has only become more obvious. Rhamondre is under contract through 2028.

RJ Harvey (RB21, 48.5 ADP - Early Round 5)

Harvey had a pretty rough rookie year as a rusher. He was near the bottom of the league in most efficiency metrics, including bottom 10 marks in success rate, explosive rate, yards after contact/att, rush yards over expected, and yards per carry. He just was simply not really good on the ground. While he was a plus pass-catcher and flashed some big-play ability, he was mostly a negative on the ground.

For that reason, I feel pretty confident that Denver doesn’t go into 2026 with Harvey as their lead RB, whether it be Dobbins returning or another FA brought in ahead of him. Harvey seems best suited for a pass-catching/change-of-pace role, which is fine, but a really bad bet at this early RD5 cost. He’ll shoot down in ADP if/when the Broncos sign that lead RB.

Quinshon Judkins (RB22, 50.9 ADP - Early Round 5)

Yet another year 2 RB, Judkins is a bit of a different case from the three RBs above him. While the workload is mostly of minimal concern, the offensive environment is a major issue. This offense was just horrendous in 2025, and I don’t see how it gets much better in 2026. The Browns are likely to roll into the 2026 season with Shedeur at QB, while also possessing major needs on the O-line and at WR. Maybe they shore up some offensively, but I have a tough time seeing them outside of the bottom ~5 offenses or so. Judkins is a talented runner, but he’s a near-lock to see his efficiency and TD equity hindered by this really poor environment. And to boot, he is not much of a pass-catcher, with just 26 receptions as a rookie (and a poor receiving profile coming out of college).

D’Andre Swift (RB24, 58.4 ADP - Late Round 5)

Kudos to Swift, who surprised me from a talent perspective this year, albeit in the elite scheme of Ben Johnson. Yet, he looked more decisive and ran harder than he ever has, so I think it was a marriage of the scheme and improvement on Swift’s end.

Nonetheless, this top-60 price tag in 2026 is troubling for me. For one, he has a decent chance to not even be on the Bears next year, as they can get rid of him with nearly zero penalty and save a good chunk of money. With Monangai also emerging as a rookie, and some potentially better RBs and/or cheaper options on the market, Swift could be a cap casualty. If he’s no longer a Chicago Bear, his value gets zapped in a likely worse environment and probably worse role. If he stays, this price still doesn’t even feel all that great, as year 2 Monangai seems pretty live to supersede Swift as the 1A in Chicago.

Chuba Hubbard (RB31, 93.5 ADP - Late Round 8)

This ADP for Hubbard feels criminal. After losing his job to Rico Dowdle, an average NFL RB at best, the market seems to be just giving Hubbard a pass here? Chuba was bad in 2025. He did not generate a single explosive rush (15+ yds) on 147 (!) carries, an insane mark. He was also bottom 3 among all RBs with 100+ rushes in MTF/Att and YACo/Att, showing very little juice as a runner.

In what world is Chuba a good bet inside the top 8 rounds? Even assuming Dowdle is gone, what’s stopping another FA from coming in and again wally-pipping Hubbard. Or even the former 2nd round pick Jonathan Brooks, who should be healthy in 2026. Point being, this would be a fine price if Chuba felt like a clear front-runner to lead Carolina in touches. To me, the underwhelming RB does not feel anywhere close to that.

Rico Dowdle (RB33, 101.5 ADP - Mid Round 9)

Moving to Hubbard’s 2025 teammate, Dowdle feels like a really poor value going just a few picks after Hubbard. He flashed for about 4 games this year, in a big way to be fair, but that was really it. Dowdle was also pretty bad down the stretch, with just a 3.25 YPC, 1.9% explosive rate, and 1.72 YACo/Att from Week 10 on. He was fun mid-season story, but Dowdle feels like a clear 1B at best. He’s a soon-to-be 28 year old RB that is a career practice squad/clear backup RB.

After a quick flash in the pan, I think we see Dowdle find himself in another backup role, wherever he lands. There’s just too much RB talent in the league right now to be confident in a guy like Dowdle getting another real shot, making him a really poor bet at this point in drafts. Plenty of better profiles lie behind him in ADP.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB38, 120.7 ADP - Early Round 11)

Bill was one of the biggest stories of 2025 draft season, shooting up in ADP as the summer went on and being put in a position to take over the lead RB role in Washington. However, despite some decent counting stats, the 7th round rookie kinda fell on his face for most of the season. After a strong start in a limited role, Bill really struggled for the remainder of the season. From Week 6 on (among 48 RBs), Bill was 44th in explosive rate, 36th in success rate, and 34th in YACo/Att. Of more importance, after gaining the lead role for a couple weeks, he ultimately lost his job to a career special-teamer/practice squad guy in Chris Rodriguez. Granted, Rodriguez was pretty good, but it’s a really bad sign that the rookie gave up this role mid-season. Especially troubling for a 7th round rookie at that.

I think Bill is a major underdog to play a meaningful role in Washington. Between their current roster with Rodriguez potentially beating him out again, along with potential additions in either free agency or the draft, Bill’s potential role is very fragile. Hell, he might not even be on the roster. He’s an easy fade here.

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Wide Receiver

George Pickens (WR9, 22.3 ADP - Late Round 2)