Predicting ADP Risers
Which players are most likely to be drafted at a more expensive ADP in September?
The purpose of today’s piece is to identify which players seem most likely to rise in ADP from now (late July) to the end of the drafting season (early September) on Underdog Fantasy. There will be plenty of movement in ADP over the next 42 days, from now until the start of the season on September 5th.
Thinking through which players possess the greatest chance of rising in ADP by the end of the summer is a very useful exercise for finding current values and mis-priced players. We obviously want to acquire players when they are at their lowest costs, therefore building efficient rosters and gaining closing line value (CLV) on these players. For those who are unfamiliar with the term “CLV”, it essentially means we want our personal ADP of a player (the average of where YOU drafted them) to be lower than their actual ADP at the end of draft season.
The players below are inherently good values at their current costs considering their increased chances of becoming more expensive, and will likely remain so if they do not rise in price.
Note: You will notice a lot of rookies on this list below. They are among the most volatile assets in drafts due to the unknown surrounding them, and they are therefore the most likely to experience dramatic ADP movement (in either direction).
Let’s dive in…
Omarion Hampton (RB14, 37.9 ADP)
Hampton is among the most obvious of the potential risers, with the recent news and uncertainty about Najee Harris and his eye injury. Najee is/was ultimately the only thing holding Hampton back from having a 2nd round price tag (a thought process I personally disagree, but that is a separate conversation). The only real reason Najee had any merit to slowing down Hampton was his veteran status. However, like Hampton, he is new to the Chargers organization. The longer he remains absent and the more reps Hampton gets with the 1st team, the less important his “veteran” tag becomes.
Najee is just not a meaningful or difference-making NFL running back, and Hampton’s profile in this offense is quite exciting. The market is going to continue to drive Hampton’s price up as Najee misses time, and I’m assuming they’ll realize the additional boost it gives Hampton even upon Najee’s return. I’m continuing to click Hampton as far up as he goes.
George Pickens (WR26, 48.3 ADP)
Pickens has been steadily rising after shooting up in ADP post trade. He’s slowly become one of the most underrated WRs in the NFL, after being overrated by many to start his career due to his contested catch prowess. Pickens is one of the best deep threats in the NFL, and has steadily improved as a separator. His elite efficiency in 2024 is an ode to that, which I outlined along with his fit in Dallas in this X post HERE.
With camp starting, it feels inevitable that Pickens will continue to rise. Pickens is the classic “camp riser” archetype, as he has the ability to make some spectacular catches. Once the market sees a few of these highlights in a Cowboys jersey, tied to an actually good QB for the first time in his career, they are going to want their hands on more Pickens shares. I expect him to rise to the top-middle of the 4th round, around pick ~40 in ADP. While I’d still be in at that cost, I’d rather get most of my shares at the 4-5 turn.