Predicting August ADP Risers
Who should we be drafting now before their prices rise in August?
The purpose of today’s article is to identify which players seem most likely to rise in ADP from now (late July) to the end of drafting season (early September), in reference to Underdog ADP. There will be plenty of movement in ADP over the next ~ 40 days, from now until the start of the season on September 5th.
Thinking through which players possess the greatest chance of rising in ADP by the end of the summer is a very useful thought exercise for finding current values and mis-priced players. We obviously want to acquire players when they are at their lowest costs, therefore building more valuable rosters and gaining closing line value (CLV) on these players. For those who are unfamiliar with the term “CLV”, it is essentially when your personal ADP of a player (the average pick at which you drafted them) to be lower than the players’ actual ADP at the end of draft season.
The players below are inherently good values at their current costs considering their increased chances of becoming more expensive, and will likely remain so if they do not rise notably in price.
You’ll see me reference/link Zain Dhanani’s posts here, who has been an awesome follow in regards to this type of info (injury news, camp news, depth chart outlooks, etc.). If you want to follow along with this stuff, I highly recommend giving him a follow.
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Data: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link.
Josh Jacobs (RB18, 40.4 ADP) seems like a pretty likely riser as the season approaches. Prior to the domestic abuse case concerns, Jacobs was going inside the top 30 picks in the beginning of the 3rd round. Since then, he’s dropped outside the top 40 in ADP, and has not recovered. To me, it seems pretty likely at this point that Jacobs will NOT be facing legal ramifications from this incident, at least in the 2026 season. While the investigation is still technically open, the charges were dropped and these things take quite a while to get figured out legally. With a month left in the offseason, I find it quite hard to believe that Jacobs will face any sort of suspension. And I think the market will come around to that. While I don’t think Jacobs sneaks back into the top 30, I do expect him to rise back to the back of the 3rd round and inside the top 36.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB29, 76.3 ADP) seems like the type to assuredly rise as more casual drafters enter the mix in August (I am on board with these prices converging, as I think Rhamondre is somewhat underpriced and TreVeyon is heavily overpriced). Simply put, Rhamondre remains the theoretical RB1 in this offense, and the larger public perception is exactly that. That’s not to say the split between he and Henderson won’t be a lot closer than it was down the playoff stretch in 2025, but Rhamondre is the clear favorite to be 1A based off usage late last year (and reports thus far in 2026). And he was legitimately good last year, with really strong efficiency metrics and receiving usage (clear preferred pass pro back too). I expect that the more casual August drafter thinks these two should be flipped, where I think they should just be closer in price than the ~2 round gap that currently separates them. Nonetheless, I fully expect this gap to close to some degree, so I’m getting shares of Rhamondre while he’s cheaper in round 7.