The 2024 Fantasy Trends Article
Analyzing trends in terms of both fantasy scoring and player efficiency/production, and how 2024 stacked up.
Hey guys. It’s been a while, so before we get into today’s article I will fill you in on what I’ve been up to. I’ve been diving deep into rookie data, and doing a ton of research on that end. My initial rookie rankings (and dynasty rankings) will likely be out shortly with the NFL combine concluding, and I will continue to put out rookie content both here and on X. I have simultaneously been working on rookie RB and WR predictive models, which will be exclusive to paid subs here on Substack.
All of this rookie content (rankings, RB/WR models, analysis) will be included in the 2025 draft guide, which is free for all paid subs. I had mentioned the draft guide in the past at the bottom of the article linked here, so click there if you want some more information. I don’t have an exact date for when the draft guide will be published and available, but I will be diligently working to get it up and running as soon as possible.
The next couple of articles you see from me (following this one) will be an NFL combine overview, followed by another best ball ADP review.
Taking a break from the above ventures today, I wanted to run through trends in both fantasy football as well as general statistical trends by position over the past four years. We’ll start with QBs, laying out fantasy points per game, and then broken down into subsets (ex: High-End QB1s, Low-End QB1s, High-End QB2s). After that, we will look at efficiency + production at the QB position. These stats will be contextualized in a summary section. Following this, we will go through the same data for RBs, WRs and TEs. Lastly, we will wrap up with injury history (over the last decade), with a table courtesy of Ryan Heath. Let’s dive in!
Fantasy Scoring + Efficiency/Production Trends
Quarterbacks
Top 18 scoring QBs in terms of average HPRR fantasy points per game, and then average scoring separated out by High-End QB1s (QB1-QB6), Low-End QB1s (QB7-QB12), and High-End QB2s (QB13-QB18).
2024: 19.23
High-End QB1s: 22.53
Low-End QB1s: 18.93
High-End QB2s: 16.12
2023: 18.82
High-End QB1s: 21.31
Low-End QB1s: 17.82
High-End QB2s: 17.12
2022: 19.36
High-End QB1s: 22.72
Low-End QB1s: 18.05
High-End QB2s: 16.98
2021: 19.87
High-End QB1s: 22.49
Low-End QB1s: 20.17
High-End QB2s: 16.69
Passing stats from the top 36 fantasy scorers each season over the past four seasons (YPC, Rush YPG, Rush TDs):
2024: 7.52 YPA, 237.13 YPG, 501 TDs
High-End QB1s: 7.98 YPA, 250.18 YPG, 215 TDs
Low-End QB1s: 7.31 YPA, 228.75 YPG, 152 TDs
High-End QB2s: 7.25 YPA, 232.02 YPG, 134 TDs
2023: 7.44 YPA, 246.19 YPG, 465 TDs
High-End QB1s: 7.78 YPA, 247.97 YPG, 175 TDs
Low-End QB1s: 7.53 YPA, 260.71 YPG, 158 TDs
High-End QB2s: 6.96 YPA, 228.39 YPG, 132 TDs
2022: 7.27 YPA, 246.83 YPG, 459 TDs
High-End QB1s: 7.59 YPA, 266.37 YPG, 188 TDs
Low-End QB1s: 6.91 YPA, 241.06 YPG, 140 TDs
High-End QB2s: 7.33 YPA, 230.85 YPG, 131 TDs
2021: 7.58 YPA, 259.57 YPG, 530 TDs
High-End QB1s: 7.47 YPA, 282.94 YPG, 232 TDs
Low-End QB1s: 7.67 YPA, 254.74 YPG, 165 TDs
High-End QB2s: 7.61 YPA, 238.84 YPG, 133 TDs
QB Summary: There’s not a ton to say from a fantasy scoring perspective here, as QB scoring has remained relatively consistent throughout the past 4 years. The most notable point here was the bounce back in 2024 following a dip in 2023 scoring. There is, however, an interesting trend to note about the production above here. Passing YPG has gone down in each of the last 4 years, which likely speaks to a trend regarding how the game is changing. I’ll touch on this more in the RB/WR sections.
Running Backs
Top 36 scoring RBs in terms of average HPRR fantasy points per game, and then average scoring separated out by RB1s (RB1-RB12), RB2s (RB13-RB24), and RB3s (RB25-RB36).
2024: 13.25
RB1s (RB1-RB12): 17.06
RB2s (RB13-RB24): 12.77
RB3s (RB25-RB36): 9.54
2023: 12.68
RB1s (RB1-RB12): 15.34
RB2s (RB13-RB24):12.59
RB3s (RB25-RB36): 9.97
2022: 12.35
RB1s (RB1-RB12): 15.52
RB2s (RB13-RB24): 11.64
RB3s (RB25-RB36): 9.58
2021: 12.51
RB1s (RB1-RB12): 15.76
RB2s (RB13-RB24): 12.48
RB3s (RB25-RB36): 9.13
Rushing stats from the top 36 fantasy scorers each season over the past four seasons (YPC, Rush YPG, Rush TDs):
2024: 4.50 YPC, 63.13 YPG, 290 TDs
RB1s: 4.87 YPC, 81.88 YPG, 142 TDs
RB2s: 4.37 YPC, 62.77 YPG, 82 TDs
RB3s: 4.07 YPC, 42.85 YPG, 66 TDs
2023: 4.29 YPC, 58.75 YPG, 250 TDs
RB1s: 4.44 YPC, 67.08 YPG, 109 TDs
RB2s: 4.42 YPC, 60.53 YPG, 89 TDs
RB3s: 3.95 YPC, 48.19 YPG, 52 TDs
2022: 4.50 YPC, 60.79 YPG, 248 TDs
RB1s: 4.63 YPC, 72.24 YPG, 116 TDs
RB2s: 4.31 YPC, 54.01 YPG, 72 TDs
RB3s: 4.51 YPC, 55.23 YPG, 60 TDs
2021: 4.32 YPC, 56.54 YPG, 244 TDs
RB1s: 4.38 YPC, 66.15 YPG, 112 TDs
RB2s: 4.33 YPC, 58.18 YPG, 90 TDs
RB3s: 4.22 YPC, 44.83 YPG, 42 TDs
RB Summary: 2024 was pretty clearly the year of the RB1. An average 17.06 FP/G was well over a full fantasy point over any of the previous three years, and nearing 2 full points ahead of 2023. The RB1 crop was as deep as it’s been in a long time. RBs as a whole also had their best year since 2021, with the most rushing ypg (63.13) and rush TDs (290) among the top 36.
While TD variance is most definitely a thing and clearly boosted RB fantasy production this year, the standard philosophy of these NFL defenses seem to be changing in way that is benefiting RBs. Defenses are deploying lighter linebackers, more 2-High shells, and running more nickel sets in order to prevent explosive plays, particularly in the passing game. This is at the expense of interior run defense, allowing RBs to have more run to room against defenders who are generally less optimized for run stopping. This concept is will represented among the top 12 RBs in terms of production this year, as they averaged 4.87 YPC which was by far the best mark of the last 4 years.
Wide Receivers
Top 36 scoring WRs in terms of average HPRR fantasy points per game, and then average scoring separated out by WR1s (WR1-WR12), WR2s (WR13-WR24), and WR3s (WR25-WR36).
2024: 12.40
WR1s (WR1-WR12): 14.18
WR2s (WR13-WR24): 12.34
WR3s (WR25-WR36): 10.54
2023: 12.64
WR1s (WR1-WR12): 15.41
WR2s (WR13-WR24): 11.93
WR3s (WR25-WR36): 10.54
2022: 12.06
WR1s (WR1-WR12): 14.70
WR2s (WR13-WR24): 11.50
WR3s (WR25-WR36): 9.77
2021: 12.31
WR1s (WR1-WR12): 15.29
WR2s (WR13-WR24): 11.88
WR3s (WR25-WR36): 9.65
Receiving stats from the top 36 fantasy scorers each season over the past four seasons (YPC, Rush YPG, Rush TDs):
2024: 2.18 YPRR, 67.05 YPG, 267 TDs
WR1s: 2.33 YPRR, 75.10 YPG, 99 TDs
WR2s: 2.15 YPRR, 68.50 YPG, 72 TDs
WR3s: 2.04 YPRR, 56.97 YPG, 66 TDs
2023: 2.26 YPRR, 70.34 YPG, 253 TDs
WR1s: 2.70 YPRR, 84.45 YPG, 95 TDs
WR2s: 2.13 YPRR, 66.22 YPG, 77 TDs
WR3s: 1.94 YPRR, 60.15 YPG, 58 TDs
2022: 2.15 YPRR, 67.33 YPG, 236 TDs
WR1s: 2.53 YPRR, 82.97 YPG, 99 TDs
WR2s: 2.01 YPRR, 65.04 YPG, 62 TDs
WR3s: 1.83 YPRR, 52.76 YPG, 54 TDs
2021: 2.04 YPRR, 66.71 YPG, 260 TDs
WR1s: 2.35 YPRR, 79.33 YPG, 111 TDs
WR2s: 1.97 YPRR, 66.71 YPG, 60 TDs
WR3s: 1.78 YPRR, 53.70 YPG, 60 TDs
WR Summary: Conversely to the RB1s, this was not the year of the WR1. While 2023 was a boom among the top 12 WRs, 2024 was easily the lowest fantasy scoring and statistical output we’ve seen in the last four years. This lines up similarly to the above talking points about shifting philosophies of NFL defenses.
Interestingly, however, the WR position appeared to be deeper in 2024 than in the past few years. The WR2 cohort scored at the highest level it has since 2021 (12.34 FP/G), as did the WR3 group (10.54 FP/G). I think this is an attribute to the depth of the WR position. Overall, WR production among the top 36 WRs did not take a hit in 2024, despite the top of the position having a down year.
To counter the aforementioned changes among defenses, offenses are relying on the short and quick passing game more (median time to throw has trended down each of the last 3 years). This could definitely be a cause for top-level fantasy production to take a hit, as a lot of those top scorers are primarily perimeter wide receivers who tend to produce on plays that take a little longer to develop.
Tight Ends
Top 18 scoring TEs in terms of average HPRR fantasy points per game, and then average scoring separated out by High-End TE1s (TE1-TE6), Low-End TE1s (TE7-TE12), and High-End TE2s (TE13-TE18).
2024: 8.64
High-End TE1s: 11.03
Low-End TE1s: 8.46
High-End TE2s: 6.41
2023: 8.59
High-End TE1s: 10.95
Low-End TE1s: 8.35
High-End TE2s: 6.44
2022: 8.37
High-End TE1s: 10.75
Low-End TE1s: 7.68
High-End TE2s: 6.62
2021: 9.33
High-End TE1s: 11.68
Low-End TE1s: 8.37
High-End TE2s: 7.90
Receiving stats from the top 18 fantasy scorers each season over the past four seasons (YPC, Rush YPG, Rush TDs):
2024: 1.77 YPRR, 45.22 YPG, 267 TDs
High-End TE1s: 2.16 YPRR, 59.45 YPG, 32 TDs
Low-End TE1s: 1.60 YPRR, 41.71 YPG, 28 TDs
High-End TE2s: 1.48 YPRR, 34.35 YPG, 19 TDs
2023: 1.69 YPRR, 46.01 YPG, 253 TDs
High-End TE1s: 1.97 YPRR, 59.35 YPG, 26 TDs
Low-End TE1s: 1.79 YPRR, 44.70 YPG, 21 TDs
High-End TE2s: 1.29 YPRR, 33.80 YPG, 20 TDs
2022: 1.66 YPRR, 40.93 YPG, 236 TDs
High-End TE1s: 1.89 YPRR, 48.53 YPG, 28 TDs
Low-End TE1s: 1.67 YPRR, 41.79 YPG, 17 TDs
High-End TE2s: 1.39 YPRR, 32.43 YPG, 22 TDs
2021: 1.69 YPRR, 47.17 YPG, 260 TDs
High-End TE1s: 1.96 YPRR, 62.03 YPG, 34 TDs
Low-End TE1s: 1.71 YPRR, 46.35 YPG, 28 TDs
High-End TE2s: 1.30 YPRR, 32.38 YPG, 23 TDs
TE Summary: 2024 was an above average year from the TE position, as we have some new bonafide TE1s (Bowers, Mcbride) in the mix. This led to the most efficient TE season among the high-end TE1s (2.16 YPRR) since 2021, along with the top 18 TEs overall with their most efficient season (1.77 YPRR) in the same time period. The top 18 TEs also scored their most total TDs (267) since 2021. With some emerging new talents at the position, I imagine we could see production sustain at this level or continue to improve, especially so at the top of the position.
Injury Data
*Chart via Ryan Heath
Summary: One interesting note, and the reason I wanted to include this chart, is the health among the top-30 ADP RBs and WRs. The RBs tied for their healthiest overall season of the past decade, while the WRs set a 10-year record for lowest percentage of healthy players over the same time period. This is certainly contributing to and creating a narrative around both of these positions (negative for WR, positive for RB), when things really may not have changed as much as many are perceiving. There are some philosophical changes among NFL defenses that we talked above that could make things a bit easier for RBs moving forward, yet the NFL remains a passing league at large. 19 of 32 NFL teams had a positive pass rate over expectation, and 59.82% of all offensive plays were designed pass attempts in 2024.
With some fluky or at least high variance injury “luck” from both positions, I wouldn’t be surprised if the aforementioned narrative shifts back in the opposite direction following the 2025 season.