The Case for Jayden Daniels as QB1 Overall

Contrary to consensus opinion which has Daniels as QB3, I make the case for my QB1 overall ranking of him below.

Today, we are looking at the top 3 QBs in fantasy football, aka "the elites". These three for many feel mostly interchangeable in ranking. That was how I was feeling for a large majority of the offseason, so I set out to try get myself an answer. I dug into their profiles, the underlying data, and overall 2025 profiles. And I did in fact get myself an answer…

Jayden Daniels is my QB1 Overall

So below, I'm going to take you guys through the process of how I landed on this ranking. Starting with QB3 and the issues I have with him, then moving to QB2 and doing the same. Next, talking through QB1 Jayden Daniels and why I ultimately have him ranked there. Lastly, finishing it off with some closing thoughts on the three QBs.

Disclaimer: If you’re wondering why Jalen Hurts isn’t included here, it’s because he is pretty clearly not in the top 3 discussion for me. On that note, I do consider him an “elite”, but he’s not worth debating against top 3 for me.

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and follow them on X here.

QB3: Josh Allen 🥉

Josh Allen, despite his elite goal line role (11 goal line rushes was 2nd amongst QBs in ‘24, 32 (!) rush TDs in last 2 years), is a candidate for rushing regression. However, his general rushing volume (attempts) have been decreasing steadily the last few years. He dropped to just 6.0 rushes per game in 2024, which was just 7th best among QBs and the lowest mark of his 7-year-career.

I expect this trend to continue for Allen as he ages. Why let your $330 million QB take shots at the goal line if he doesn't have to (especially in less crucial situations)? And even though the goal line role remained strong this past season, it was his lowest inside the 5 rushing total since 2021, indicating the Bills may slowly decrease this segment of his rushing role as well.

Even if the goal line rushing role does remain steady (it might), his actual rushing TD total (13) massively outperformed his expected TD total (9.5), so we could see some regression anyways there.

I'm also worried about the passing volume and production for Allen. He attempted nearly 100 less passes in 2024 than he did in any of the previous four seasons, resulting in lows in both passing yards and TDs as well. The Bills accounted for the 9th most rush attempts in the NFL, and have skewed more run-focused since Joe Brady took over in 2023.

And frankly, there's no reason this should change. The Bills are mostly built for the run, as their best receiver is Khalil Shakir (who is dealing with a high ankle sprain). They are typically notable favorites in the majority of their games, and their in-division competition is rather weak. This lends itself to the style of football the Bills seemingly want to play, running the ball and bleeding the clock once they get a sizable lead.

Allen finished as the QB2 last year, and things may be getting worse. He's undeniably a strong bet (if not the best bet) to finish top 3-5 at the position, but his QB1 overall case (which is what we’re really looking for at his cost) is starting to become weaker as this offenses evolves. He might be lacking that outlier upside considering the lacking passing volume and reduced rushing role.

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QB2: Lamar Jackson 🥈

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