Week 1 MNF Preview: MIN Vikings @ CHI Bears

In-depth breakdown of the Week 1 MNF matchup.

The first Monday Night Football game of the year.

This is a fun one as there are a lot of questions to be answered on both sides. What does JJ McCarthy look like? How does the Minnesota backfield shakeout? Do the Bears come out hot with their offseason upgrades? Is Caleb still bad?

Plenty to be answered, so let’s get into the matchup breakdown!

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and follow them on X here.

Vikings Implied Total: 22.5

The Vikings start the JJ McCarthy era as 1.5 point favorites on the road. If you’ve followed my offseason work, I’ve been pretty bullish on McCarthy and this Vikings offense. He’s the former 10th overall pick and has real rushing upside, attached to arguably the best fantasy-producing system in the NFL.

The Bears defense is an interesting case. They really struggled down the stretch of last season, coming in at 27th in EPA/Play and allowing the single highest yards per attempt in the NFL from Week 10 on. However, they’ve added some pieces, have a new staff, and project to have the 12th best defense in 2025 (per Mike Clay). I’ll be cautious here and assume they’re somewhere between those two, so a beatable defense but not a cakewalk.

I think McCarthy has the chance to put up some decent numbers here. The script is expected to be relatively neutral, and the Vikings 2024 QB Sam Darnold averaged 280.5 passing yards in their two games against the Bears last year. They allowed deep shots to connect at a high rate as well, allowing the 5th most deep YPG and the 9th most deep completions. The Vikings have also remained pass heavy with backup QBs (Dobbs, Mullens) in recent years, so there’s a good chance continue to look towards the pass frequently even in McCarthy’s debut.

That being said, the Bears forced the 4th highest turnover worthy throw rate, and they also are very good limiting QB rushing (3rd fewest rush yards allowed last year). McCarthy is also effectively a rookie, so contrary to the above point, there’s also a decent possibility they want to ease him in with a run heavy approach. I like a shot on McCarthy’s 217.5 yard passing line, but I’m wary of major production.

At receiver, it’ll of course be Justin Jefferson across the pecking order, along with TE TJ Hockenson as well as former Viking Adam Thielen returning back to his roots.

I like Justin Jefferson a lot here (ballsy, I know). For starters, Jefferson is not only arguably the best WR in the NFL, but he’s an elite deep threat. We mentioned the Bears struggled against the deep ball last year. Last year, Jefferson was 3rd in the NFL in deep receptions and 6th in deep YPG. With Addison suspended, we could see any potential deep volume consolidate to Jefferson.

I also expect the Vikings to see a lot of 2-high shells tonight, as the Vikings saw the 2nd most of these last year (likely to limit the deep ball). New DC Dennis Allen also was 2-high heavy in New Orleans last year. Contrary to most perimeter WRs, Jefferson actually sees an increase in volume against 2-high, albeit a slight jump from 0.26→0.27 TPRR.

The Vikings also run a lot of play action (7th most in 2024), and were top 5 in both YPG and TDs on play action passing plays. Conversely, the Bears really struggled to defend play action, allowing allowed the 2nd most YPA and the 9th most receptions on the season to PA plays. Jefferson saw a nice efficiency boost in play action last year, jumping from a 0.26→0.29 TPRR and 2.66→3.35 YPRR.

The passing volume here, again without Addison, should consolidate towards Jettas to some degree. Would expect a “rookie” QB to lean on such a talented, reliable separator like Jefferson. I think his 77.5 receiving yard line is a smash, and I’ll definitely hit the over on his 6.5 receptions.

TJ Hockenson and Adam Thielen are next up in the pecking order here. They’re both fine plays here too. Chicago was specifically weak against inline targets, allowing by far the most yards per attempt in the league as well as the 10th highest completion rate. Against the slot, they allowed the 6th most YPA and the 8th highest completion rate. Thielen figures to run mostly from the slot, while Hockenson will split his time between both slot and inline. Caveat on Thielen though, as he’s reported to possibly be on a limited snap count. That makes more inclined to be in on Hock, but I’m pretty indifferent on both of their lines.

Jalen Nailor should be the last guy taking any significant snaps. He was pretty inefficient last year, but he could see additional volume with Addison out and Thielen on a pitch count. Nailor, like Jefferson above, improves on play action attempts. He jumps from a 0.12→0.17 TPRR, and a 1.16→1.45 YPRR. He’s a sneaky nice bet for o1.5 receptions.

For the run game, the Bears defense was pretty weak down the stretch here as well (25th in EPA/Rush, allowed 9th most YPC). They specifically allowed the 2nd most YPC and 2nd highest success rate to zone rushes, which the Vikings run at a very high rate (top 12 in zone, top 7 in outside zone).

What will be intriguing to see is the split between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason tonight. KOC has indicated through the offseason that this will be an even split, with Mason being the primary goal line guy and Jones the passing downs.

Anyone who tells you the know how this split is going to go is lying to you, and to themselves. However, with Jordan Mason having the slightly lower costs/prop lines, I prefer his costs. He was really good in outside zone rushing concepts last year (top 5 in all major efficiency categories), which the Vikings run at the 7th highest rate and the Bears struggle against. Jones was not as good, with just 4.36 YPC in zone rushes. I’ll opt for the over on Mason’s 39.5 yard rushing line, and am a fan of his +195 TD line.

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Bears Implied Total: 21

For the 2025 Chicago Bears, there is a ton new additions (and subtractions) to this offense. They massively beefed up the O-line, invested heavy draft capital into Loveland and Burden, and of course have offensive play-calling stud Ben Johnson now running the show. The hope is that this new support can help Caleb to develop and meet his lofty expectations, but will he will he be able to do so?

Well, it could be a bit tough here. The Vikings were a very good pass defense last year, and they were top 10 in both EPA/DB and EPA/Play despite cooling off in the back half of the season. They were 12th in YPA allowed, and easily led the NFL in interceptions (24).

Caleb Williams really struggled last year, even in advantageous situations. The hope is that Johnson can turn him and this offense around, but I’m wary of that starting tonight. The Vikings love to blitz (2nd most last year) and generate a lot of pressure (7th highest pressure rate). Against pressure, Caleb was 2nd to last (to only Anthony Richardson) in ANY/A, and was 3rd worst in catchable throw rate.

The Vikings also led the entire NFL in 2-high rate (63.6%). Among 40 QBs, Caleb was bottom 5 in yards per attempt (6.01) and catchable throw rate (67.6%) vs. 2-high. I just think this whole operation is going to take a couple games to get flowing smoothly (if it ever does), and against turnover-forcing, pressure-inducing defense, I think Caleb struggles a good bit.

And that brings us to the receiver room. There’s a lot of pieces here. We have DJ Moore and Rome Odunze returning from 2024, as well as 10th overall pick Colston Loveland and 2nd rounder Luther Burden (who won’t play much). And then, current starting slot Olamide Zaccheaus as well as TE2 Cole Kmet will get legitimate time.

I’m particularly out on DJ Moore in this one with the expected struggles. He’s historically worse against 2-high, and has the highest yardage prop of any receiver here (57.5). Just simply playing it logically, I don’t want to be in on the most expensive receiver (who I don’t think separates from the rest from a talent/target-earning perspective) on an offense I’m expecting to struggle.

Rome Odunze is a better play than DJM, at 3.5 receptions and 47.5 rec yards, but I’m probably just avoiding his lines. If this offense (and offensive line) really struggles, time to throw and to let plays develop would be limited, which hurts Rome more than anyone in my opinion. It’s assumed Rome is unlikely to get many designed targets or short-yardage work, which could leave him phased out of the offense if they can’t get things going.

The rest of these guys will mostly be working slot/inline, those being Loveland, Kmet and Zaccheaus. Loveland has the highest totals of the remaining players, yet I’m most intrigued with him here. I see Loveland as a truly special talent, and expect him to be much more involved from the jump than the market does. I expect to see a ton of 12 personnel with him and Kmet, as Ben Johnson did in Detroit. I do think both Loveland (25.5 rec yard line, 2.5 reception line) and Kmet (14.5 rec yard line, 1.5 reception line) are fine plays but I’ll roll with Loveland here. This could be the lowest yardage total we see all season for him.

Lastly, I want to highlight Olamide Zaccheaus from a DFS perspective. He costs just $2k which is obviously super cheap, but he will probably be pretty high owned. He’s a fine play on his 21.5 yardage prop, but I again would rather bet on Loveland and his talent at similar value.

And lastly, the Chicago run game. With Roschon Johnson inactive, it will be D’Andre Swift accompanied by 7th round rookie Kyle Monagai for touches. The Vikings rush d was strong as well last year, top 10 in both EPA/Rush and success rate, as well as 4th in YPC allowed (4.05). They allowed the 6th lowest explosive rush rate (3.1%). The Vikings did, however, cool off a bit here before the end of last season (13th in YPC from Week 10 on).

Ben Johnson ran a predominantly zone rushing scheme in Detroit, which you’d imagine he’d carry over to Chicago. Not only is D’Andre Swift horrendous in zone rushing schemes himself (3.39 YPC), but the Vikings allowed the 8th lowest success rate on these runs last year (43.4%). In a game where I expect the Bears offense to struggle, Swift will likely have limited rushing volume and TD equity, so he could have to get it done through the air here. I’ll take the under on his 53.5 rushing yard prop.

As for Kyle Monangai, he poses a decent value at $2.8k on DK. I expect he sees at least some work, but it remains to be seen how much. He’s a solid DFS flier.

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Game Prediction: Vikings -1.5, Over 43.5

Favorite Anytime TD Values: Justin Jefferson (+135), Jordan Mason (+195), Colston Loveland (+390)

Favorite Player Props: Justin Jefferson o77.5 rec yards AND o6.5 receptions, Jordan Mason o39.5 rush yards, DJ Moore u57.5 rec yards, Colston Loveland o25.5 rec yards