Week 1: Players Who Could Smash

Players who are set up for success in Week 1.

Welcome to the Week 1 “Players Who Could Smash” article. This is a position-by-position breakdown of players that could exceed expectations (beat projected lines or fantasy points, pay off DFS price) based off their matchup and environment for this week. We’ll start with QB, than move to a few RBs and WRs, before capping things off at TE.

The players below are all specifically a part of the Sunday Main Slate games (1pm and 4pm EST). If I’m bullish on any other guys this week, you will see a breakdown on them in the primetime game preview articles.

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and follow them on X here.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence opens up the season in a giga-smash spot against the lousy Panthers defense, who finished dead last in EPA/Play and 31st in EPA/DB last year. They allowed the 2nd most passing fantasy points in the NFL. With year 2 BTJ, 2nd overall pick Travis Hunter, and the elite play-calling of Liam Coen, Lawrence seems to suddenly have a lot more offensive support than he did last year.

From a schematic standpoint, Lawrence should fare well against this Panthers D as well. The Panthers ran Cover 3 at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL last year (41.1% of the time). Lawrence, even in a somewhat disappointing year, was really strong against Cover 3 specifically. See below for his numbers:

• Vs. All Coverages: 7.20 YPA (17th), 5.99 ANY/A (20th), -0.8% CPOE (31st), 15.3 FP/G (23rd)

• Vs. Cover 3: 9.20 YPA (4th), 7.84 ANY/A (6th), 7.6% CPOE (5th), 5.0 FP/G (9th)

Really notable boosts in efficiency here.

A nice little bonus to the Liam Coen scheme is his propensity for having his QB run, demonstrated with Baker Mayfield’s career high rushing volume in 2024. With the Panthers allowing the 7th most rushing TDs and the 8th most rushing attempts to QBs, we could maybe see Trevor Lawrence use his sneaky size and athleticism in the run game here.

Nonetheless, even if it’s pretty much all passing work, Lawrence and the new look Jags have the chance to open up scorching hot against this Panthers D. He’s an awesome value at just $5.3k on DK, and I love the over on 1.5 passing TDs.

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Running Back

Kenneth Walker

Walker’s inclusion on this list might be a little bit surprising to many considering his injury concerns through the summer. But when he’s active (as he will be in Week 1), KW3 is the guy in Seattle. He’s truly one of the most talented and explosive rushers in the NFL. He’s a sub 4.4 athlete that led the NFL in missed tackles forced/attempt (0.31). He’s dealt with some seriously poor OL play over the past 2 years, which should be both healthier and improved (with RD1 rookie Gray Zabel) in 2025.

The matchup is strong for Walker this week. The 49ers were surprisingly weak against the run last year, coming in at just 29th in EPA/Rush and 25th in success rate. Walker’s aforementioned MTF/Att rate should bode well here, as the 49ers allowed the 2nd highest MTF/Att in the NFL last year.

Furthermore, the 49ers struggled against outside zone rushes last year, which we know is new Seattle OC Klint Kubiak’s bread and butter. They allowed the single most YPC on these attempts (6.00), and the 7th highest success rate.

Ken Walker also exploded in the receiving game last year, tallying the 4th highest target share amongst RBs en route to the 6th most receiving YPG. Klint Kubiak targeted his RB at a ridiculous rate in New Orleans last year, leading to a league-leading 19.6% target share and 38.8 receiving YPG. The stars could be aligning for a big receiving output from Walker, as the 49ers allowed the 4th most YPG to backfield targets last year and the 7th most completions.

As just 1.5 point underdogs, we should expect a relatively neutral game script, meaning both rushing and receiving volume could be there. I’m into a big game for Walker to open the season, and particularly love his receiving yard line (14.5). He’s also a great play at just $5.9k on DK.

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James Conner