Week 11: Players You Should Fade

Players who could underperform in Week 11.

Welcome to the Week 11 “Players You Should Fade” article. This is a position-by-position breakdown of players that I’m expecting to underperform their expectations (projected fantasy points or betting lines), based off their matchup and environment for this week. Like the smash article, we’ll start with QB before going through a few RBs and WRs, and then ending with TE.

The players below are all specifically a part of the Sunday Main Slate games (1pm and 4pm EST). If I’m fading any other guys this week, you will see a breakdown on them in the primetime game preview articles.

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and if you’re interested in buying, use code DATAROMA at checkout for 15% off!

Quarterback

Caleb Williams

Caleb has been running hot the last two weeks against some lackluster pass defenses, but this matchup vs. Minnesota could be tougher for him.

For one, the Vikings lead the NFL in pressure rate, getting pressure 46.2% of the time. Caleb really struggles against pressure, 34th of 37 QBs in yards per attempt vs. pressure, while dead last in CPOE (-10.5%). He’s vastly improved his sack avoidance when pressure in 2025, but this pressure is still getting to him as a thrower of the football.

On top of the pressure, the Vikings are not letting QBs get to their 1st read often, as a 60.3% 1st read rate is 4th lowest in the NFL. Caleb really struggles when unable to hit his 1st read, coming in at 32nd (of 37 QBs) in YPA, and again dead last in CPOE (-8.2%).

The Vikings fare better against the pass than they do the run (just 21st in EPA/Rush). For a Bears team that has been bottom 8 in PROE since their Week 5 bye, we could see them look to their ground game often in this one. I just don’t expect Caleb to hit a ceiling game in this one, so I like fading him as the 9th most expensive QB on the slate. And I’d go under on his his 227.5 passing yard o/u.

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Running Back

Derrick Henry

Henry sees the Cleveland Browns for the 2nd time this season, a defense that absolutely bottled up back in Week 2 (with Lamar active, too). One trend I noticed with the Browns is they seem a lot more adept at stopping these bigger, less-twitchy rushers as opposed to the extremely quick types. I’ll spare you all the stat lines, but they really stuffed up guys like Henry, Rhamondre, David Montgomery this year, while allowing higher efficiency to guys like Achane, TreVeyon Henderson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

In general though, Cleveland’s rushing numbers look really good on the season. They are 2nd in the NFL in all of EPA/Rush, YPC allowed, and success rate. They are very good against zone rushes in particular, allowing the single lowest success rate in the league while top 5 in YACo/Att.

In Week 2, the Ravens opted to go extremely pass heavy against this Browns defense, posting a 10.2% pass rate over expectation. I think there’s a pretty strong chance we see that happen again. And if this one gets out of hand like the script suggests it could (-7.5), we could see more Keaton Mitchell who the Ravens have mentioned getting more involved as is. I like fading Henry at the 7th most expensive price tag on DK ($6.6k), and taking the under on a 76.5 rushing o/u.