Week 16 SNF Preview: TB Buccaneers @ DAL Cowboys

In-depth breakdown of Week 16's SNF Matchup.

Dec 22, 2024

Tonight on SNF, we get the 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers facing off against the 6-8 Dallas Cowboys. The Bucs are leading the NFC South and could really use a win to help lock in a playoff spot, while Dallas remains led by Cooper Rush in a lost season. Should be a fun one on Sunday Night Football.

Buccaneers Implied Total: 26.5

The Bucs have been very solid this year offensively, even after losing stud slot WR Chris Godwin for the year back in week 7. Since that time, the Bucs O is still 7th in the NFL in EPA/Play, not to mention missing Mike Evans as well from weeks 8-11. A lot of this success should be attributed to Baker Mayfield, who has a had a complete career resurgence over the past two seasons. Baker’s been very effective this year, 9th in YPA (7.81) and 11th in ANY/A (6.90) while all the way up at 3rd in catchable throw rate (79.9%).

This week, Baker sees a Dallas pass defense that has struggled on the season, yet has been a lot better over the past month. See below for the Dallas D splits:

Weeks 1-11: 25th in EPA/DB, 30th in ANY/A (7.23), 2.4 Sacks per game
Weeks 12-15: 1st in EPA/DB, 5th in ANY/A (4.89), 4.5 Sacks per game

A lot of the improved defensive numbers for Dallas can be attributed to the increased sack rates rather than improved coverage however, as their 7.33 YPA allowed is still worse than average and their catchable throw rate allowed has actually increased in this time (77.3%→81.7%).

The Dallas pass rush should be of minimal concern for the Bucs, who have done well in terms of stopping pressure. Their OL has allowed the single lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (21.8%), so they should be able to stymie the recently surging Dallas pass rush.

I think Baker should have a strong game in this one. Not only does Dallas have a beatable secondary, but they also run a good bit of 1-High shells (56.9% of the time over the past month). Baker has been even better against 1-High, coming in at 6th in YPA (7.87) and 8th in ANY/A (6.43).

I anticipate Baker will bring along WR1 Mike Evans for the ride. Evans is similarly strong against 1-High, see below for his splits:

Vs. All Coverages: 27% TPRR, 2.68 YPRR, 26.1% 1st Read %
Vs. 1-High: 31% TPRR, 3.26 YPRR, 28.5% 1st Read %

Really good stuff here. Not to mention Evans needs 249 yards over 3 games to hit his yearly 1,000 yards, so there’s the potential additional volume coming his way down the stretch. I don’t typically buy narratives like this, but it’s worth noting. Evans should build off his big game last week with another one here.

Outside of Evans, rookie WR Jalen McMillan has really emerged over the last couple weeks as the 2nd target in Tampa. In the past 2 weeks, McMillan averaged 67 receiving ypg on some strong efficiency (24% TPRR, 2.68 YPRR). His 21.4% target share was 9% higher than the next highest player, Cade Otton, who is also going to be inactive this week meaning potentially even more volume for McMillan.

McMillan has been more effective against 2-High (17% TPRR, 1.48 YPRR) than 1-High (15% TPRR, 0.84 YPRR), but I’m not putting too much stock into that heading into this one. He has been a different player since the Bucs bye (week 12). See below for his separation metrics since week 12 via @FantasyPtsData ASS (among 94 qualifying WRs, min. 50 routes):

0.179 Separation Score (11th among 94 WRs)
22.1% Win Rate (10th)

McMillan is separating at an elite level as of late, and the box scores are reflecting it. He’s a solid play here.

Outside of the above WRs, we will see Sterling Shepard man the slot (60% slot rate since wk12), while sophomore TE Payne Durham has been 2nd in the TE room in routes run so he figures to step in for the injured Cade Otton.

We have essentially no body of work from Durham as he has earned just 2 targets and a 6.9% route share on the season, so I’m not expecting much from him in this one. As for Shepard, he has been pretty involved as of late. He is averaging 5.3 targets per game over his last 4, with a rather strong 24% TPRR but averaging just 34.3 rec ypg. However, since McMillan’s emergence the past 2 weeks, Shepard has become less involved with just 3.5 tgt/g (17% TPRR).

I do anticipate that with Otton out, we could see Shepard eat up some of those vacated targets as they both primarily work the short yardage game (6.5 and 6.9 aDOTs since week 12). Shepard has also been better vs. 1-High since week 8, seeing his TPRR jump from 20%→24% and his YPRR jump from 1.27→1.46. Considering Dallas has also struggled to defend the slot (2nd most YPA allowed since week 7), I think Shepard has a sneaky strong setup here.

For the run game here, I like Bucky Irving’s outlook a lot. After dealing with injuries the past couple of weeks, he returned to form with a 15 carry and 117 rush yard performance last week. Bucky did see a reduced workload still, splitting carries evenly with Rachaad White and dropping back down to a 43.3% snap share.

This week, Bucky should be able to build on last week’s performance. Bucky has been one of the most efficient RBs in the league, see below (among 37 RBs, min. 100 att):

5.61 YPC (4th among 37 RBs)
7.2% explosive run rate (3rd)
0.26 MTF/Att (3rd)
3.26 YACo/Att (2nd)

Bucky sees a Dallas rush defense has also been among the worst in the league, dead last in EPA/Rush and allowing the 4th most YPC (4.77) on the season. Furthermore, the Cowboys have been particularly weak against man-gap run concepts, allowing the 3rd highest success rate in the league (58.5%). Bucky has been great in man-gap runs, leading all RBs in YPC (6.78) and 3rd in success rate (56.5%).

In a game where the Bucs are 4 point favorites and have the 5th highest implied team total (26.25), rush attempts and scoring opportunities should be plentiful for Bucky.

The same goes for Rachaad White, who has been similarly strong in man-gap runs, good for 5th among all RBs in YPC (6.07) in these concepts.

Perfect matchup for the both of them. The only concern is potentially not enough opportunity available for the both of them to have big games, but they still both are set up very nicely here.

Cowboys Implied Total: 22

The Cowboys come into this one performing a lot better over the past month, picking up wins in 3 of their last 4 and scoring 27+ in all three wins. Cooper Rush has been very competent in this time, coming in at 13th in ANY/A (6.89), 11th in CPOE (4%), and 15th in catchable throw rate (74.2%). He has just 1 INT (to 8 TDs) in this time. He’s not a particularly attractive fantasy option due to lack of upside (arm talent, rushing ability, lack of weapons), but he’s been more than capable of supporting fantasy production around him.

This week, Rush and the Cowboys get a Tampa pass D that has been rather weak, good for just 27th in EPA/DB, 30th in success rate, and 27th in ANY/A (7.32) since week 7. Granted, they have been much better over the past few weeks (3rd in EPA/DB, 6th in ANY/A since wk12), but this has been against some pretty putrid offenses including the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. I’m not particularly worried about the strong numbers over the past month.

I think we could be in for a big Ceedee Lamb game. The Buccaneers run the most Cover 3 in the NFL (52.4% since week 7). Ceedee has been very good vs. Cover 3, see below:

Vs. All Coverages: 28% TPRR, 2.26 YPRR
Vs. Cover 3: 33% TPRR, 2.81 YPRR

The Bucs also blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Ceedee sees massive boosts to his efficiency when Dallas is blitzed, see below again here:

When DAL is NOT Blitzed: 26% TPRR, 1.68 YPRR, 29.1% 1st Read %
When DAL is Blitzed: 36% TPRR, 4.32 YPRR, 42.6% 1st Read %

Outside of Ceedee, it’s been kind of tough to predict who is going to produce in this passing game. Jake Ferguson just logged his lowest route share of the season last week (56.7%), so he feels like a less comfortable option than usual. The Bucs also run a ton of 1-high, leading the NFL with a 72.9% rate over the past month. Ferguson really struggles vs. 1-High, see below:

Vs. All Coverages: 22% TPRR, 1.46 YPRR
Vs. 1-High: 19% TPRR, 1.14 YPRR

Ferguson has also been rather inefficient since week 10, just a 20% TPRR and 1.33 YPRR. Ferguson’s price in DFS formats does reflect his recent struggles, but I still wouldn’t be looking to play him here.

Outside of the above receivers, Brandin Cooks is the only other guy playing near full time (69% route share over last 2). Cooks has been extremely inefficient on the season, with just a 17% TPRR and a brutal 0.74 YPRR. He’s not a guy I’d be looking to play in any format.

Jalen Tolbert, who had been a full time player most of the season, just logged back to back season lows in route share (62.9% in wk14, 40% in wk15). Tolbert has been very inefficient similar to Cooks (14% TPRR, 1.02 YPRR), so I would not be looking to play him either.

The other two guys getting some burn that are worth mentioning are Kavonte Turpin ($3k on DK) and Luke Schoonmaker ($1.8K), who are both nothing more than hail mary’s in DFS formats.

As for the run game in Dallas, Rico Dowdle has completely taken over the backfield and has been on a heater as of late (100+ yds in 3 straight). I do suspect that hot streak could come to an end here. Dowdle sees a Bucs rush D that has been one of the best in the league since week 6, good for 2nd in the NFL in EPA/Rush and boasting the 9th highest stuffed run rate in the league (46.9%). Considering the Bucs weaker pass D, Dallas could look to the pass game often.

Tampa has also been particularly tough against man-gap run concepts, allowing the 9th fewest YPC (4.19) and the 5th lowest success rate (42.4%) since week 6. This is where Dowdle has made his money this year, garnering the 7th best YPC (5.71) and 6th best success rate (56.5%) in these concepts.

As the RB13 on the week and the 4th most expensive player on the SNF showdown slate, I fear the Dowdle hype has gotten a bit out of control for my liking in a rather tough matchup.