Week 2 MNF Double-Header Preview

In-depth breakdown of both Week 2 Monday Night Football games.

We get a double-header on Monday Night Football, with the Bucs and Texans kicking it off, followed by the Chargers and Raiders at a rather unfortunate time slot (at least if you’re on the East Coast).

The Bucs pulled off the win in Week 1, but didn’t look all that impressive. As for the Texans, they put up just 9 points in their season-opening loss to the Rams, and appears to have the same O-line problems plaguing them as they did last year.

In game 2, the Chargers are coming off an electric performance were they proved to continue their pass-heavy ways from 2024, taking down the Super Bowl runner-ups. Their opponent, the Raiders, also put up a nice performance in Week 1 where Geno Smith threw for north of 350+ yards.

With double the action to talk through, let’s get into it.

Note: Scroll to the bottom if you just want to check the game predictions, favorite props and anytime TDs, and top DFS plays!

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and follow them on X here.

TB Buccaneers @ HOU Texans

Texans Implied Total: 22.5

The Texans looked quite poor offensively in Week 1, yet remain 2.5 point favorites against a formidable opponent in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their offensive line in particular was getting annihilated last week, coming in as PFF’s 4th lowest graded OL. CJ Stroud did in turn not look great in this one either, tossing just 188 yards for 0 TDs and an INT. He was just 20th in EPA/Play in Week 1.

This week, he sees a less ferocious front four from the Bucs, one that generated just 1 sack and the 11th lowest PFF pass rush grade in Week 1. With their really poor OL play, I still don’t feel confident in CJ Stroud having ample time to throw, but he’s at least not up against Jared Verse and co. The Bucs secondary should be pretty beatable, allowing the 4th most passing fantasy production in 2024.

We should, to the point above regarding pressure, see a lot of blitzes from the Bucs. They led the NFL in blitz rate in 2024. Considering the OL issues, this does not inspire confidence in this Texans offense. And CJ Stroud himself really struggled in 2024 against the blitz, coming in at bottom 10 in catchable throw rate, ANY/A, sack rate and CPOE. Just in general though, Stroud really struggled last year, as he did not cross top 25 in any of these metrics. I don’t particularly have any interest in playing him here, even in the more advantageous matchup, and would opt for the under on his 230.5 yard passing prop.

I’m pretty willing to just avoid Nico Collins in this one as well. While the Bucs are relatively beatable, they were not horrible on the perimeter (where Nico runs over 75% of his routes). They were 14th in both YPG and completion % allowed, while all the way up at 2nd in yards per attempt. They did allow 6th most completions to the perimeter, however.

Nico does improve against 1-high, which we expect the Bucs to run a lot of (6th most last year), jumping from 2.97→3.67 YPRR. I just don’t trust this offense to produce enough in the pass game nor do I expect them to allow Stroud enough to execute on downfield throws to Nico. I’m avoiding Nico at his 77.5 yardage o/u here.

The rest of the passing game options in Houston did not see above 65% route share in Week 1. I want to start with Dalton Schultz, who should consolidate routes with TE2 Cade Stover on the IR. He could jump from his 61.8% route share up to mid 70% or higher, which would be of course bullish. He also sees slight boosts in efficiency against Cover 3, which the Bucs ran at the highest rate in the NFL last year, jumping from 1.16→1.35 YPRR. When Houston was blitzed last year, Schultz saw his TPRR jump from 0.18→0.22. I don’t love the talent, but he poses a nice value at $3.2k. His 37.5 receiving yard o/u isn’t as appealing, though.

Outside of Nico, we have a WR committee taking place for now in Houston. Xavier Hutchison was 2nd in route share at over 60%, while all of Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, and Justin Watson were between 38 to 41% route shares. Data aside, the logical move here is to play Xavier Hutchison or Jaylin Noel. Hutchison had a 64.8% route share, yet his line is just 15.5 yards (and he’s $3.2k on DK). Compare this to Justin Watson, who has basically the same exact line/cost while only a 38% route share in Week 1. Higgins value also feels inflated, with the same 38% route share as Watson, but up to 26.5 yardage o/u and a $4.3k cost on DK. He’s obviously the better long term bet of the bunch, but for how things are now, this feels like bad value. And last but not least is Jaylin Noel, who actually bested Higgins and Watson in route share (41%). You can get Noel for the same $3.2k on DK, but just a 6.5 yardage prop. I like the over on that a lot, especially as a safety valve for Stroud when the Bucs blitz.

For the run game, it’s Nick Chubb as the clear RB1. All three of Woody Marks, Dare Ogunbowale, and Dameon Pierce got a couple touches, but Chubb easily led the way. And he actually showed some juice, forcing 4 missed tackles for a 0.31 MTF/Att rate. That being said, his 13 carries resulted in 60 scoreless rush yards (and 0 receptions). But this week, Chubb has a much tougher matchup, against a really strong Bucs rush defense that just stymied a very competent Atlanta rushing attack for just 2.5 yards per carry.

The Texans ran a ton of man-gap concepts in Week 1, as 10 of Chubb’s 13 attempts came as gap concepts. In 2024, from Week 10 on, the Bucs allowed the 2nd lowest YPC and success rate to these concepts. It could therefore be really tough sledding on the ground. The Bucs just held Bijan Robinson to 24 rushing yards, so I feel pretty confident that they can keep Chubb in check. I’m comfortable taking the under on 51.5 rushing yards for Chubb, and fading at $5k on DK.

As for the rest of the aforementioned running backs, I don’t see any reason to play either of them. They’re all very live to receive zero touches in this one. All three above $4k on DK, where I’d much rather take a shot on a cheaper receiver like Noel or Hutchison.

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Buccaneers Implied Total: 20