Week 2: Players Who Could Smash

Players who are set up for success in Week 2.

Welcome to the Week 2 “Players Who Could Smash” article. This is a position-by-position breakdown of players that could exceed expectations (beat projected lines or fantasy points, pay off DFS price) based off their matchup and environment for this week. We’ll start with QB, than move to a few RBs and WRs, before capping things off at TE.

The players below are all specifically a part of the Sunday Main Slate games (1pm and 4pm EST). If I’m bullish on any other guys this week, you will see a breakdown on them in the primetime game preview articles.

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and follow them on X here.

Quarterback

Drake Maye

Maye is fresh off a mediocre Week 1 fantasy output, registering just 15.8 fantasy points despite 46 pass attempts and a week-leading 14.3% (!) PROE. However, the pass-heavy approach is a good sign, and the matchup gives me hope for a big performance in Week 2.

Miami is currently a bottom of the barrel NFL team, and the pass defense is no different. They just got dismantled by an average-at-best Colts offense, who put up 33 points and a best-in-NFL 0.472 EPA/Dropback. The coverages the Dolphins run frequently also lends well to Maye’s ability. See below for how Maye’s boosts in efficiency and accuracy rank against other QBs, against both zone and 2-high:

• Zone coverage (MIA runs at 7th highest rate)

  • CPOE: 17th → 8th

  • Catchable throw rate: 20th → 14th

• 2-High shells (MIA runs at 6th highest rate):

  • CPOE: 17th → 7th

  • Catchable throw rate: 20th → 10th

  • ANY/A: 31st → 9th (!)

  • YPA: 27th → 6th (!!!)

Really massive boosts in efficiency for Maye here. Furthermore, while Maye had a quiet rushing output in Week 1, we know it’s certainly in his bag. He was 6th amongst all QBs in rushing YPG, and he was 2nd in the NFL in scramble rate in 2024. This Dolphins defense just let up two (2) rushing TDs in Week 1 to Daniel Jones, so Maye should have a solid chance to do some damage with his legs here.

Considering the elite matchup for Maye and the rushing upside, he’s an elite play in DFS at just $5.2k. I’d smash the over on his 214.5 passing yardage o/u.

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Running Back

David Montgomery

I’m “buying low” on the Detroit offense in Week 2, and doing so through David Montgomery. I just don’t subscribe to the idea that this offense is just going to be bad now because of the coaching changes and one poor week of play. They undeniably had a tough time adjusting against one of the better (best?) defenses in the NFL last week. However, while new OC John Morton might not be Ben Johnson, he should be able to get some strong production out of this offense that is just oozing with talent.

On that note, against a much weaker Bears defense, I suspect the Lions bounce back. They’re favored by nearly a full touchdown, and have the 2nd highest implied team total of the week. This could mean a lot of rushing volume and TD equity for Montgomery, against one of the lesser run defenses in the NFL (26th in EPA/Rush in 2024, 8th most YPC allowed from Week 10 on).

Furthermore, the Bears are particularly weak against zone rushing concepts, which the Lions run frequently (5th highest rate in ‘24, 60% of attempts in Week 1). In 2024 from Week 10 on, the Bears allowed both the 2nd highest YPC (5.15) and success rate (61.7%) to zone rushes.

There’s a lot working in Montgomery’s favor, between the scheme advantage and positive game script. Montgomery’s rushing line of 43.5 feels extremely low, and I'‘m into his $5.4k price tag on DK.

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James Conner