We get another double-header for the MNF slate here, the 2nd of the season. In game 1, we have an AFC East divisional battle between the Dolphins and Jets. After Week 1, the Jets looked like a diamond in the rough, while the Dolphins looked like a straight disaster. Since then, however, the tides have turned. While 0-3, the Dolphins have played some competent football over the past couple of weeks. The Jets, also 0-3, were an absolute disaster in Week 2 against Buffalo. The offense then struggled again in Week 3 with Tyrod Taylor under center. The Dolphins are favored at home by less than a field goal, and there’s still a lot of question marks for both of these teams.
In the 2nd game of this slate, we get the struggling Broncos facing-off against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. With Burrow effectively out for the season, and Nix struggling, both of these teams are trending in the wrong direction. The Broncos still come into this one as rather large favorites (-7.5), so the markets are not giving the Browning led-Bengals much credit here.
With much to sort through for these two games tonight, lets get into it…
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NY Jets @ MIA Dolphins
Dolphins Implied Total: 23.5
The Dolphins come into this one off a better-than-expected performance against the Buffalo Bills, falling by 10 in a game that was pretty close throughout. Since Week 1, the Dolphins are quietly playing at an above average level, 10th in offensive EPA/Play. And despite some name value that this Jets defense carries, they have not been all that impressive in 2025. They are just 28th in defensive EPA/Play, while 30th in EPA/DB. Actually quite bad from New York.
For Tua Tagovailoa, I do think this matchup could lend itself to a solid day. The Jets defense has been extremely poor where the Dolphins thrive. They have struggled mightily to stop yards after the catch, which is the Dolphins top weapons’ (Achane, Tyreek) specialty. Specifically De’Von Achane, who is leading the NFL in YAC per game (59.6). The Dolphins speedy weapons could have a big day creating YAC, which will of course help Tua in turn. That being said, his yardage prop feels high (236.5), so I’m probably just avoiding there. As the least expensive QB on the slate though, I’m into Tua against what seems like a bad Jets pass defense.
Speaking of that YAC ability, let’s talk De’Von Achane in the passing game. Achane has been unbelievably involved there, with a highly impressive 0.29 TPRR and an outrageous 23.7% target share. The heavy 2-high approach that teams tend tot take with Miami opens up the underneath passing game for Achane. The aforementioned deficiencies with allowing YAC by NY should help Achane out in this one as well. His reception line (5.5) and yards (34.5) both feel good, but I’ll opt for the over on yards due to the Jets YAC woes.
Before we move to the rest of the passing game, I’ll quickly touch on the run game for Achane here. As the Jets are tougher against the run (6th lowest success rate allowed), I question if the Dolphins will be able to get anything going on the ground. Outside a tough matchup vs. Buffalo, the Jets have also been very good stopping zone rush attempts, which account for two thirds of Achane’s attempts (6th most among RBs). In Weeks 1 and 3, they allowed just a 3.13 YPC (8th best) and a 40.6% success rate (10th). Achane could always break one loose, but that hasn’t been happening much as of late. I’m avoiding his rushing line here.
On that note, I’m avoiding Ollie Gordon in this one too. His rushing line isn’t horrible (25.5), but this a solid Jets rush defense that is really good defending gap rushing concepts (which Ollie runs a lot more of than Achane). They are allowing the 3rd fewest YPC (2.04) and the single lowest success rate (21.4%). At $4.5k on DK, he’s a bit too pricy for me.
For the rest of this (rather consolidated) receiving game, it will be Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle garnering most of the work, with Malik Washington nearing full time status himself (~65% route share). Of the bunch, I actually see Malik Washington as the best value ($3.5k on DK, 2.5 reception line). Washington has been way too involved to have these low costs/lines. He is averaging 4 targets per game, and is leading the team in designed targets (4). The Jets are allowing the 2nd most YPG in the NFL on designed targets (36.7). Like Achane, he is a YAC guy (9.17 YAC/Rec is 3rd among all WRs).
The Jets have also been very vulnerable guarding the slot, where Malik runs ~60% of his routes. They are allowing the 2nd most YPA (9.86) and 3rd most YPG (92.0) in the entire NFL to slot targets. I think Washington will get his in this one, making his 2.5 reception line feel low and his $3.5k price tag on DK feel like a very nice value.
Now for the Dolphins top wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, let’s start with Tyreek. Like his speedy teammates, he should theoretically benefit from the Jets letting up YAC in bunches. Tyreek also runs about 40% of his routes from the slot, much more than his teammate Waddle (20%). While the Jets have not been too tough anywhere in the passing game, we mentioned that they have been very weak against the slot. And on the same note, tougher against the perimeter, allowing the 18th fewest YPA (8.38). The Dolphins propensity to move Tyreek around the formation and put him the slot also leaves me more interested in Tyreek than Waddle. He’s a fine play at $6.5k (4th most expensive player on slate), as he is on his receiving line (66.5). Although, I’m not chomping at the bit here, as Tyreek has gotten a bit expensive as of late. Waddle has that aforementioned “tougher” perimeter matchup, and he’s the less efficient/target-commanding option of the two (0.20 TPRR, 1.65 YPRR), so I feel inclined to avoid him altogether in this one.
Lastly want to touch on Darren Waller, who is active for the first time tonight. You don’t have much to lose by going for the over on his 9.5 yard receiving line, as maybe they want to make it a point to get him involved a couple times? But as the 2nd most expensive TE on the slate in DFS, he’s an easy fade for me.
Jets Implied Total: 21.5
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