Week 4: Players Who Could Smash

Players who are set up for success in Week 4.

Welcome to the Week 4 “Players Who Could Smash” article. This is a position-by-position breakdown of players that could exceed expectations (beat projected lines or fantasy points, pay off DFS price) based off their matchup and environment for this week. We’ll start with QB, than move to a few RBs and WRs, before capping things off at TE.

The players below are all specifically a part of the Sunday Main Slate games (1pm and 4pm EST). If I’m bullish on any other guys this week, you will see a breakdown on them in the primetime game preview articles.

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and if you’re interested in buying, use code DATAROMA at checkout for 15% off!

Quarterback

Caleb Williams

After landing on the “smash” list in Week 3 and subsequently “smashing”, Caleb Williams finds himself on here once again in another cake matchup in Week 4. He sees the Las Vegas Raiders, who are 27th in EPA/DB and are allowing 7th most yards per pass attempt (7.83). The set up is rather similar too, as the Raiders run a ton of zone coverage (92.6%! is highest rate in NFL) like the Cowboys. The Raiders also struggle with the deep ball, allowing the 4th most deep YPG (62.0) and 6th most deep completions (5).

Caleb has seemed to have vastly improved on the deep ball in year 2. Through 3 weeks, Caleb is 2nd in the NFL in both deep completions (7) and deep YPG (80.0). Probably more importantly, Caleb appears to have fixed the accuracy issues there, as his 69.2% catchable throw rate is 7th best in the NFL.

Going back to the Raiders zone heavy approach, which comes in the form of a lot of Cover 3. Their 54.6% cover rate is easily the most in the NFL thus far, as no other team has a crossed a 45% rate. Against Cover 3, Caleb has the 8th most yards per attempt (8.64), and the 3rd highest passer rating (126.0).

I suspect we could see another big performance for Caleb. I once again like his passing yard o/u (225.5), but like last week, I’m into the over on his 1.5 passing TD o/u.

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Running Back

Omarion Hampton

With Najee Harris done for the season, this one may seem obvious. But how does Hampton not smash in this one? For starters, he’s going to be a complete workhorse in one of the best offenses in football (5th in EPA/Play). When Najee went down in the middle of the 2nd quarter in Week 3, Hampton recorded every single running back touch for the remainder of the game. And not only does he have this role/environment, he gets to operate in said role against one of the worst rush defenses in football. Through 3 weeks, the Giants are 30th in both EPA/rush and success rate allowed, as well as 28th in YPC allowed (5.23).

Furthermore, the Giants have been particularly weak against gap rushing concepts, allowing bot the 2nd worst YPC (6.73!) and success rate (68.3%) on these runs. 57.1% of Hampton’s rush attempts have been gap concepts, 8th most (of 48 RBs) in the NFL.

And for what it’s worth, after a slow start to his rookie year, Hampton looked notably more comfortable in his 3rd career game. He posted 129 total yards and a TD, posting positive RYOE for the first time (0.33 RYOE/Att) and looking dynamic as a receiver (6 for 60).

In a game where the Chargers are favored by nearly a full TD, the script should be in Hampton’s favor. And with the 5th highest implied team total of the slate, both scoring opportunities and rushing volume should be in abundance. I’m very into Hampton hitting his 65.5 rushing yard o/u, and think he’s way underpriced at $5.9k on DK.

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