Week 6 MNF Preview: Double Header #3

In-depth breakdown of the Week 6 MNF matchups.

We get our third (of four) Monday Night Football double-headers tonight. Not personally a fan of these double-headers, so happy that they’re wrapping up next weekend. Nonetheless, we have two games to talk through tonight…

To start, we see the Buffalo Bills head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. The Patriots just handed the Bills the first loss of their season in a primetime spot last week, so they’ll be looking to bounce back on the national stage here. The Bills remain one of the best offenses in football, leading the NFL in offensive EPA/Play. Atlanta, on the other hand, has had an up-and-down season. After getting humiliated by the Panthers in Week 3, they bounced back and took down the Commanders in Week 4 prior to their bye. In a tougher matchup on the national stage, it’ll be interesting to see which version of the Falcons we get here.

In game number 2, we have the Chicago Bears heading to DC to take on the Washington Commanders. The battle of the #1 vs #2 pick from the 2024 NFL Draft. With Jayden back last week, this Commanders team swiftly took care of the Chargers in Week 5, and Jayden played some great ball while Bill ultimately stole the show. They get a much friendlier matchup against the Bears defense in Week 6, too. The Bears, despite some flashes, have not been a particularly strong unit offensively. They are just 26th in EPA/Play and 28th in success rate overall. The Commanders have been pretty solid defensively, but I would not say they are to be feared.

With plenty to discuss, let’s get into it…

Note: Scroll to the bottom if you just want to check the game prediction, as well as my favorite props, anytime TDs, and DFS plays!

Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and if you’re interested in buying, use code DATAROMA at checkout for 15% off!

BUF Bills @ ATL Falcons

Bills Implied Total: 26.5

The Bills are fresh off their 1st loss of the season, now facing a Falcons team that had arguably the best performance of the season last week. And this Falcons defense has actually been very solid for the most part, 7th in defensive EPA/Play. Against the pass specifically, they are 6th in EPA/DB and are allowing the 2nd fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL (5.79).

Josh Allen, despite the tougher matchup, is always a threat for a blow-up performance. The Falcons run a lot of 1-high shells, doing so at the single highest rate in the NFL (68.5%). Allen remains similarly elite vs. 1-high, and it allows him to increase his deep throw rate (11.6%→12.9%). I typically don’t worry about the matchup with Allen much, but more so game script. In a game where the Bills are modest -3.5 favorites, the hope is that we could get a competitive game that allows Allen to throw a bunch throughout. And with a 49.5 game total, a higher-scoring environment is possible. I do worry that the Falcons have been a bit of a run funnel (28th in success rate allowed), but Allen always has the blowup potential. As the 2nd most expensive player on the double-header slate, Allen remains a solid play.

So which passing game option could Allen take with him here? The Falcons have been pretty good across the board, but they have been a bit weaker against the slot as opposed to the perimeter. They are allowing the 4th fewest YPG and the single fewest completions to the perimeter, while allowing the 9th fewest YPG to the slot. And they run a lot of 1-high, as mentioned above. Who benefits from this? Typically, it would be Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. With Kincaid questionable to suit up tonight, I like Shakir in this one.

In 2025, Shakir has been better against 1-high shells, jumping from a 0.20→0.24 TPRR (+20%) and 1.78→2.38 YPRR (+33.7%). Great news going against the team that runs the most 1-high in the NFL. The Falcons also blitz a lot, doing so at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. Shakir jumps up to a 2.36 YPRR when Buffalo is blitzed (+32.6%). I like Shakir to cross his 4.5 reception line a lot, especially with some potential increased volume sans Kincaid. I do prefer his receptions, as Atlanta has been good limiting designed targets (3rd fewest YPA allowed), which have accounted for 25.9% of Shakir’s total targets. He’s a solid play at just $5.2k on DK.

If Kincaid does go, he has a similarly solid schematic set up. He jumps from a 0.24→0.26 TPRR and 2.84→3.28 YPRR vs. 1-high. When Buffalo is blitzed, his TPRR jumps from 0.24→0.28. His route share remains iffy at just ~55%, but he’s also a solid bet to cross a 38.5 receiving yard o/u. And you can get him at just $4.4k on DK.

Keon Coleman gets that tougher perimeter matchup we mentioned, and he does not improve vs. 1-high 1.75→1.67 YPRR. I prefer his teammates at cheaper costs in DFS.

Lastly, Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel have been splitting time as the 3rd WR for Buffalo, both around 45% route shares. The tricky thing here is Samuel is also questionable to go tonight. If so, Palmer represents a really nice value at $3.6k on DK and an 18.5 receiving yard o/u (which will increase if Samuel is out). Palmer also sees improvements in efficiency vs. 1-high, going from a 1.76→2.35 YPRR there. He does get that tougher perimeter matchup, though.

We mentioned above that the Falcons have been a bit of a run funnel. They are just 20th in EPA/Rush and 28th in success rate, allowing the 9th most YPC (4.64) in the NFL. This could be great news for James Cook, who is coming off his least effective game of the season against New England. The Falcons have been allowing a lot of yards after contact, the 8th most per attempt in the NFL (2.37). Cook has been very efficient picking up YACo, doing so at the 5th highest clip among RBs (2.89).

The Falcons also have been allowing explosives at a pretty high rate, as a 5.3% rate is the 11th most in the NFL. Cook’s 4.4% explosive rate is strong, and we know he can pick up yards in big chunks. Cook is also 3rd in the entire NFL in % of rushes that have gone for 5+ yards (43.3%). The Falcons? Allowing the 3rd highest rate of 5+ yard runs.

All things considered, it seems unlikely that we get Cook bottled up like last week, nor is it likely that the Bills see another negative game script. I like Cook to cross his 70.5 rushing yard o/u, and think $7.1k on DK (3rd most expensive player) is a fine price.