We finally come to the conclusion of the dreaded Monday Night double-headers in Week 7. And this double-header could be a hypothetical “tale of two halves”, if you will. What I mean by that is our 1st game, the Lions vs. the Bucs, has a massive 52.5 implied total. Both these offenses have been firing on all cylinders, with Detroit at 6th in EPA/Play and Tampa just behind them at 7th. Detroit has not skipped a beat sans Ben Johnson, and even the banged up Bucs have continued to put up big numbers.
Game number two, the second “half” of this double-header, could be a little less thrilling. We have just a 41.5 implied total here. We have two of the better defenses in the NFL facing off in this one, as Houston is 3rd in defensive EPA/Play while Seattle is 11th. While the Houston offense has mostly struggled (19th in EPA/Play), the Seattle passing game has been lighting it up (leading NFL in EPA/DB) thanks to the duo of Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But, this Houston defense could mitigate that.
Let’s dive in…
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TB Buccaneers @ DET Lions
Lions Implied Total: 29.5
The Lions have been rolling ever since Week 1, as they are 3rd in offensive EPA/Play in that time. They should once again have a robust offensive performance, demonstrated by their 29.5 point implied team total. And facing the Buccaneers should aid in that offensive success. The Bucs are currently 23rd in EPA/DB and 29th in DB success rate. They could definitely be worse though, as they are 15th best in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.48) and 16th in PFF’s coverage grade. Nonetheless, a potent offense such as Detroit’s should be able to do some damage here.
Jared Goff should have minimal issue beating Tampa’s frequent 2-high looks (55.5% rate is 9th most), as he’s 2nd in the NFL in ANY/A (9.42) and 4th in CPOE (11.1%) against these. He’s also averaging 0.57 FP/DB against these, 7th most in the NFL.
On top of this, the Bucs tend to blitz a lot, doing so at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Goff is leading the NFL in ANY/A AND CPOE when blitzed, while again 7th in FP/DB (0.65).
We know the Lions run a lot of play action on offense, doing so at the 6th highest rate in the NFL this year. When seeing play action, the Bucs defense has struggled. They’re allowing the 2nd most yards per attempt (10.08) and the 2nd highest passer rating (131.9).
This is setting up to be an explosion game for this passing offense, especially since this Tampa rush defense is a lot more competent (leading NFL in EPA/Rush). I’d lean to the over on his 255.5 passing yard o/u and think $6.0k (DK) on the 2-game DFS slate is a strong price.
So, which of the Lions top receiving options is going to get taken along with Goff? While it very well could be all of their top three guys, I’m most intrigued with Amon-Ra. I want to emphasize that I’m actually quite into all three of these guys, but I think WR1 could go off in this one.
I’m going to break this one down a little differently than I normally do, as I think this might be the most effective and digestible way to do so:
The Bucs have been “tougher” against the slot, allowing the 11th fewest YPG there as opposed to the 6th most on the perimeter. However, it’s worth noting that Tampa has allowed the 10th most completions to the slot. Nonetheless, let’s see the Lions’ slot rates:
Amon-Ra: 51.5%
Laporta: 46.5%
Jameson: 29.5%
Slight advantage here, Jamo. But I’m not factoring this in too much.
Next up, let’s talk through the aforementioned tendencies of both of these teams. The Bucs are 2-high heavy, so let’s look at how these guys do vs. all coverages→2-high:
Amon-Ra: 0.30→0.33 TPRR, 2.67→3.33 YPRR
Laporta: 0.23→0.27 TPRR, 2.25→2.65 YPRR
Jameson: 0.17→0.10 TPRR, 1.73→1.40 YPRR
While Amon-Ra and Laporta see notable boosts in 2-high, Jamo really struggles.
Next, let’s look at how these guys perform when their team is blitzed, considering the Bucs blitz heavy approach.
Amon-Ra: 0.30→0.40 TPRR, 2.67→5.69 YPRR
Laporta: 0.23→0.22 TPRR, 2.25→3.00 YPRR
Jameson: 0.17→0.22 TPRR, 1.73→2.31 YPRR
All three of these guys have been better when Detroit is blitzed, but Amon-Ra is clearly the go-to guy in these scenarios. And his 113% increase in YPRR is absurd.
Lastly, I want to mention the play action game, as we talked about Tampa’s struggles there.
Amon-Ra: 0.30→0.31 TPRR, 2.67→3.94 YPRR
Laporta: 0.23→0.25 TPRR, 2.25→3.67 YPRR
Jameson: 0.17→0.18 TPRR, 1.73→2.00 YPRR
All three of these guys again boost, but Amon-Ra and Laporta have the more notable boosts in efficiency here.
Considering ALL of this information, I want to be in on Amon-Ra here, and I think his 75.5 receiving yard o/u is a very advantageous line.
Next up, Laporta, who I also like the over on yards at 46.5. He’s also the cheapest option in DFS at $4.3k, which I’m very into. And then Jamo, who has the same 46.5 receiving yard o/u. But, I’d rather play the boom-bust option in DFS at $5.0k.
As for the famed Detroit run game, it could be a bit more of a grueling effort in this one. The Bucs rush defense is leading the NFL in EPA/Rush, 4th in success rate, and they’re allowing the 5th lowest YPC (3.67).
I want to touch on the schemes here, as there’s an interesting dynamic. The Lions do not run a ton of gap stuff, doing so at just the 20th highest rate in the league. However, this is where their run game has really thrived in 2025, as they’ve amassed a league-leading 6.43 YPC on these runs — and over half their rush yards have come on these despite accounting for just a third of total attempts. Unfortunately for Detroit, this efficiency could be stymied some, as Tampa is allowing a league-low 2.76 YPC on these gap concepts, and the 2nd lowest success rate (34.8%). In zone concepts, which the Lions run more frequently (7th highest rate) but are much worse in (29th in YPC), the Bucs still remain solid (league-average YPC/success rate) although not quite as good.
If the Lions could get their zone rushing game on track, they could maybe create some big plays here. Tampa is allowing the 9th highest explosive rush rate on zone concepts. But, this is a really tough rush defense overall, and I much prefer to play this one through the passing game.
Speaking of that passing game, the Bucs have been allowing a lot of receiving yards out of the backfield, doing so at the 3rd highest rate in the league. This is skewed by some of the RBs they’ve played, but they still come in below league-average when adjusting for RB strength. Gibbs could get a good bit of work there, so over 23.5 receiving yards feels like a solid play.
Buccaneers Implied Total: 23
The Bucs are in an interesting spot here. They are riddled with injuries on the offensive end, yet both Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are trending towards playing. Evans is basically certain to play, while Egbuka “has a real chance”. Egbuka is particularly surprising considering the trickiness of hamstring injuries, as most were expecting a Week 10 post-bye return. However, I’m going to operate as though both of these guys will be active, as that appears to be the sentiment.
In this one, Baker Mayfield should have a decent chance to continue his hot streak, even with his WR group banged up. This Lions pass defense has been relatively vulnerable as is (17th in EPA/DB, 11th most YPA allowed), and their secondary is extremely banged up themselves. All of Kerby Joseph, Avonte Maddox, and Terrion Arnold will miss this one.
Despite the defensive injuries, I do have some concerns for Baker. The Lions run both 1-high shells and man coverage at top 7 rates, which Baker has really struggled against. See below for his numbers in relation to 33 other QBs:
Vs. All Coverages: 7th in YPA, 21st in CPOE
Vs. 1-High: 25th in YPA, 30th in CPOE
Vs. Man: 30th in YPA, 29th in CPOE
Really tough. With Evans potentially shaking off some rust and Egbuka likely banged up/possibly out, it could get a little ugly against man/single-high.
I don’t want to throw too much cold water here, considering the state of the Lions secondary, but I’m avoiding Baker tonight.
At receiver, we should expect the trio of Evans, Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard to be the top options.
While lines are not currently out for Egbuka due to his injury, I want to be fading his $7k price tag on DK (4th most expensive WR on slate). When lines do come out, I’m sure they’ll be too high for my liking. For one, I don’t think we can discount Egbuka playing just one week removed from a hamstring injury. Even if he’s healthy enough to play, he probably will be zapped of some explosiveness. I think we could see a lot of decoy usage should Egbuka go.
On top of this, Egbuka struggles against both man coverage and 1-high shells, which we mentioned Detroit runs a lot of. See below for his splits here:
Vs. All Coverages: 0.23 TPRR, 2.62 YPRR
Vs. 1-High: 0.22 TPRR, 1.50 YPRR
Vs. Man: 0.24 TPRR, 0.45 YPRR
This highlights some of Egbuka’s weaknesses as man separator, as you can see by his 82.8% (!) decline in YPRR vs. man so far. I’m avoiding Egbuka here.
Mike Evans, fresh off a 3-week absence, will be looking to get back on track here. Unlike Egbuka, he thrives against both man and single-high shells. He jumps from a 0.30→0.35 TPRR vs. man, and a 11.1%→17.6% 1D/RR rate (+58.6%). Against single-high, 0.32 TPRR and 13.6% 1D/RR rate. These are obviously on more limited samples in 2025, but the story has been the exact same for his entire career. He thrives in man situations with room to operate on the sideline.
I do worry a bit about his ability fresh off this hamstring issue, but he feels like the better play at a slightly cheaper DFS cost ($6.5k). A 63.5 receiving yard o/u is a solid play to the over as well.
Sterling Shepard has been a good bit better vs. man in 2025, as he’s jumped from a 0.18→0.24 TPRR and 1.64→1.85 YPRR. I like going for his 31.5 receiving yard over right now. I think that’s a fine enough line if Egbuka plays, and if he doesn’t, it’s a very nice line. I’d much prefer him to Cade Otton, who’s been notably less efficient (0.13 TPRR, 1.02 YPRR) and naturally does worse vs. man coverage (0.12 TPRR, 0.79 YPRR)., yet still has a higher receiving yard line (37.5).
If Egbuka ends up inactive, I think Tez Johnson should be the main beneficiary. He had an 84% route share last week, compared to Kameron Johnson at 48% (didn’t start getting real work until Egbuka injury). I’d take Tez at slightly pricier ($4.2k), compared to Kameron at $3.4k.
For this run game, it could be tougher, especially in a potentially negative script (+6.5). The Lions have been notably better vs. the run, coming in at 6th in EPA/Rush and 10th in YPC allowed. Rachaad White remains relatively inefficient as a runner, coming in at just 0.13 MTF/Att, 1.91 YACo/Att, and a 1.9% explosive rush rate. Detroit is top 5 in the NFL in all three of these metrics, which could further highlight White’s woes here. In a game where I think Tampa could get down, I don’t want to play this one through the Tampa run game.
I do like White in the receiving game here, though. Over the past 3 weeks, he’s averaged 4 targets per game and 26.7 receiving YPG. In, again, what should be a negative script, I like White to remain involved as a receiver. White is a much more effective receiver than he is a rusher, so I like the over on 20.5 receiving YPG.
Prediction: Lions -6.5, Over 52.5
Favorite Anytime TD Values: Amon-Ra St. Brown (-110), Sam Laporta (+165)
Favorite Player Props: Amon-Ra St. Brown o75.5 receiving yards, Sam Laporta o46.5 receiving yards, Rachaad White o20.5 receiving yards
Favorite DFS Plays: Jared Goff ($6k), Jameson Williams ($5k), Sam Laporta ($4.3k), Sterling Shepard ($4.5k)
HOU Texans @ SEA Seahawks
Seahawks Implied Total: 22.5
The Seahawks offense has been rolling, specifically through the air, where they are leading the NFL in EPA/Dropback. Darnold has been among the best QBs in the league as JSN has WRs, but this could be a tougher matchup for this group. The Texans are one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, coming in at 4th in dropback success rate and leading the NFL in EPA/DB. This has led to them allowing the 3rd fewest yards per pass attempt.
For Sam Darnold, I suspect we could see a tamer overall performance in a game where his team is projected for a moderate 22.5 points. Darnold and the Seahawks have been thriving in their 12 personnel, play action-heavy apporach. However, the Texans have stymied these in 2025, coming in at 2nd in the NFL in ANY/A against 12p and 1st in ANY/A when seeing play action. As you’ll see become a theme for this game, I want to fade Darnold here. I’d opt for the under on 224.5 passing yards, and would avoid in DFS.
JSN, despite the tough matchup, still has some pretty gaudy price tags. He’s up at an 88.5 receiving yard o/u, and is the 2nd highest priced player on the DFS slate to just ARSB. For one, the Texans have been particularly strong on the perimeter, allowing the single fewest completions (34) and the 6th lowest passer rating (78.5). JSN has moved to the perimeter in 2025, running 80% of his routes from there.
The Texans have been a zone heavy team, running zone at the 6th highest rate in the NFL. JSN has been ridiculous regardless of coverage, but he’s been particularly great against zone. He jumps from a 0.36→0.41 TPRR and 4.61→5.15 YPRR vs. zone. He’s also improved in play action (ridiculous 8.18 YPRR), but we mentioned Houston has been good against. I’m not ruling out the possibility of JSN hitting due to the talent he’s shown in 2025, but I’m looking in other directions.
Outside of JSN obviously dominating targets, it’s been Cooper Kupp in a full-time role, while Tory Horton (50.6% route share) and the two tight ends (AJ Barner at 60.9%, Elijah Arroyo at 42.5%) in more part-time roles. In what’s an already tough matchup, I’m not too excited for any of these guys. The Texans have been tough across the board from an alignment perspective, so no advantages for these guys there. All 4 of these guys have also declined in efficiency when facing zone coverage as well. I want to avoid all of these guys in what could be a low scoring affair, particularly the most expensive of them in Cooper Kupp at $4.8k on DK and at a 38.5 receiving yard o/u. However, I prefer the under on Darnold rather than any one receiver.
The Seattle run game has been quite the opposite of their pass game. They are currently 30th in EPA/Rush and 26th in rush success rate. It’s been polar opposites between the two Seattle RBs as well, as Ken Walker (4.67 YPC, 0.26 MTF/Att) has significantly out-performed Zach Charbonnet (2.60 YPC, 0.12 MTF/Att). The duo, despite this, has been splitting work relatively evenly, with Charbonnet actually having the edge in rushes and routes this past week.
I think Walker sets up more favorably than Charbonnet here. While the Texans have been a solid rush defense (9th fewest YPC), they’ve struggled most with tackling and after contact stuff. While allowing the 6th fewest yards before contact per attempt, they are allowing the 12th most yards after contact. They’re also missing the 4th most tackles per attempt. This lends better to Walker’s skillset (0.26 MTF/Att) than it does Charbonnet’s (0.12 MTF/Att).
In terms of scheme, the Texans have actually been a bit vulnerable to zone concepts, which the Seahawks run at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. They are allowing the 3rd highest success rate in the entire NFL on these zone runs. Charbonnet has been one of the worst zone rushers in the league (2.05 YPC), while Walker’s 4.87 YPC there is 8th best among RBs.
This run game may be more important than it typically is thanks to a very tough Houston pass defense. However, I don’t feel too confident in either thanks to Walker’s hindered workload and Charb’s lacking talent. I’m particularly looking to fade Charbonnet here.
Texans Implied Total: 19
The Texans had been struggling in the pass game for the 1st 3 weeks of the season, but did get things going the past 2 weeks before their bye in Week 6. Granted, this was against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, in the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens. The Seahawks are not an elite pass defense, but they’re certainly a couple steps above these other teams. And they’re healthy now, with Riq Woolen set to return, Devon Witherspoon trending towards a return, and Julian Love questionable.
I expect against a dodgy Texans passing game, this newly healthy Seahawks secondary could have a strong performance. Their 2-high heavy approach could limit CJ Stroud, who dips from 12th→17th in YPA when facing 2-high and sinks from a 102.1→95.1 passer rating. I prefer other QBs on the slate, and would avoid props. Although, I do think this run game is similarly going to struggle (will touch on this below), so we could see CJ throw a good bit.
CJ’s WR1, Nico Collins, also gets limited by 2-high shells, to no surprise. He drops from a 0.26→0.24 TPRR, and 2.21→1.82 YPRR. I don’t love the idea of Nico reaching his gaudy expectations in this game script or environment either, with just a 19 point implied total. He’s a guy I’m looking to avoid tonight.
Outside of Nico, with Kirk out, it should be some combination of Xavier Hutchison and the two Iowa State rookies (Noel and Higgins) getting work. My guess would be that we see some combinations of Hutchison and Higgins alongside Nico in 2WR sets, and than Noel manning the slot in 3WR sets. There’s a lot of uncertainty on who will do what here, so I prefer to play this through the cheapest option. That’s Jaylin Noel, who is priced at $3.3k on DK. Noel also figures to eat up some of middle of the field work as the slot guy for Houston, and he’s improved in efficiency against 2-high (0.14→0.17 TPRR, 2%→5.6% 1D/RR) on his limited sample.
With the limited established receiving talent, we could see Dalton Schultz get involved. Schultz has seen 6 targets in each of his last 3 games, despite some very positive game scripts in two of those games. He has a respectable 0.22 TPRR on the season. He also improves notably against 2-high shells, jumping up to a 0.31 TPRR (+45.5%) and seeing his YPRR boost from 1.60→2.26 (+41.3%). His reception line is unfortunately pretty high (4.5), but I don’t hate the over on his 38.5 receiving yard line and think he’s a strong DFS/Anytime TD play.
I have a lot of concerns for this Houston run game. The Seahawks have been a top unit in the NFL, coming in at 3rd in EPA/Rush and 6th in success rate. They are 7th in MTF/Att, 5th in YBCo/Att, and are leading the NFL in both YACo/Att and explosive rush rate allowed (0.7%).
In terms of gap concepts, which the Texans RBs both run at over a 50% clip/top half of the league rate, Seattle has been strong. They’re allowing the 6th lowest YPC to these concepts (3.65), and they have not allowed a single explosive rush on 51 attempts. Woody Marks has also been one of the worst gap rushers in the league, with a 38.9% success rate that is 43rd of 47 RBs.
Among the Texans top RBs, Nick Chubb and the aforementioned Woody Marks, it’s kind of up in the air as to what the workload split will be. After a fake-out in Week 4 that had us believing it was Woody Marks as the lead, Week 5 told a different story as Chubb was the clear lead while Marks had just a 25.6% RB rush share.
A post-bye rookie bump for Marks is feasible, but Chubb has been running solid, and better than Marks for the most part. Despite the recent rush shares and overall ability, Marks is actually more expensive than Chubb on DK ($5.2k vs. $5k). I’m comfortably fading Marks there, as I am at his 29.5 rushing yard o/u. I expect Chubb to maintain the lead here, and running room will be tough to come by for both of these guys.
Prediction: Seahawks -3.5, Under 41.5
Favorite Anytime TD Values: Kenneth Walker (+165), Dalton Schultz (+360)
Favorite Player Props: Sam Darnold u224.5 passing yards, Zach Charbonnet u38.5 rush yards, Woody Marks u29.5 rushing yards
Favorite DFS Plays: Kenneth Walker ($5.6k), AJ Barner ($3.3k), Dalton Schultz ($3.8k)
Also, Egbuka news came out just after I released this. I'm avoiding his 51.5 receiving line. Feels low but my concerns above remain
Chubb or Walker for full PPR