Welcome to the Week 7 “Players To Fade” article. This is a position-by-position breakdown of players that I’m expecting to underperform their expectations (projected fantasy points or betting lines), based off their matchup and environment for this week. Like the smash article, we’ll start with QB before going through a few RBs and WRs, and then ending with TE.
The players below are all specifically a part of the Sunday Main Slate games (1pm and 4pm EST). If I’m fading any other guys this week, you will see a breakdown on them in the primetime game preview articles.
Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and if you’re interested in buying, use code DATAROMA at checkout for 15% off!
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles offense has been a hot topic for debate this season, as the run game has been inconsistent as has the pass game. This week, I think Hurts and the passing game could struggle. They see the Vikings defense that has turned into a bit of a run funnel at this point, as they are 25th in EPA/Rush while all the way up at a league-best -0.23 EPA/DB. For a Eagles team that would ideally like to lean on their run game, this could be the game to try and do so.
Schematically, the Vikings preferred tendencies could vastly limit what the Eagles can do through the air. Contrary to the Eagles matchup last week, they should see a lot of zone looks from the Vikings. They run man coverage at the 10th lowest rate in the league. Hurts drops-off from 6.26→5.81 ANY/A vs. zone, and 100.2→91.6 passer rating. The Vikings also blitz at a league-high rate (44%), which Hurts drops off to a 4.65 ANY/A and 78.6 passer rating against.
Where the Eagles try to (and do) win in the passing game is chucking it deep, as Hurts is 3rd in the entire NFL in deep throw rate (15.1%) and 5th in deep YPG (64.0). Unfortunately here, the Vikings strong pass defense and frequent 2-high looks (lead NFL) limits deep passing, as they’re allowing the 3rd fewest deep YPG (25.0) and deep completions (5) on the season.
Seems to be a lot working against Hurts here, so even crossing 200 passing yards feels like it could be a feat. I’ll therefore opt for the under on 206.5 passing yards, and fade as the 3rd most expensive QB on the DFS Main Slate.
Running Back
Tony Pollard
Pollard has been having quite a rough go in the 2025 season, large in part to the Titans league-worst offense (dead last in EPA/Play, 31st in success rate). This has led Pollard to a rough 3.93 YPC and 2.2% explosive rate.
This week, Pollard gets a tough matchup against a New England rush defense that has been surprisingly good this year. NE is 4th in EPA/Rush and 3rd in YPC allowed (3.46) among all NFL teams. The Patriots have been tougher against zone concepts, but still reside in the top 11 in the NFL in both YPC allowed (3.85) and success rate (50%) against gap concepts. Pollard runs gap concepts at the 10th highest rate in the NFL (54.3%), and has been quite bad in them, as he’s 26th of 36th RBs in YPC (3.96) and 32nd in success rate (44%).
The only semi-appealing part of Pollard’s outlook was his elite workload. As of last week, that workload seems to be in danger. Tyjae ate up a 3rd of the rushing volume, resulting Pollard’s lowest RB rush share of the season (66.7%). He also set season lows in snap share (42.4%, previous low was 72.3%) and route share (25%, previous low was 50%). In what should be yet another negative game script (+7), we could get a lot more Tyjae who appears to be the clear preferred passing down back in Tennessee. I like the under on Pollard’s 57.5 rushing + receiving line, and think he’s an easy fade at $5.4k on DK.
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