Welcome to the Week 2 “Players To Fade” article. This is a position-by-position breakdown of players that I’m expecting to underperform their expectations (projected fantasy points or betting lines), based off their matchup and environment for this week. Like the smash article from earlier today, we’ll start with QB before going through a few RBs and WRs, and then ending with TE.
The players below are all specifically a part of the Sunday Main Slate games (1pm and 4pm EST). If I’m fading any other guys this week, you will see a breakdown on them in the primetime game preview articles.
Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and follow them on X here.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes is in a really tough spot here. Against an elite Philly defense that absolutely shut him down in the Super Bowl while the game was competitive, I expect some really tough sledding once again here in Week 2. The one capable weapon Mahomes had in that game, Xavier Worthy, is now injured and out for this week at least. That leaves the ghost of Travis Kelce and washed Hollywood Brown, alongside Juju and “Tyquan Thornton” as Mahomes’ top targets.
In the Super Bowl, the Eagles ran an outrageous amount of Cover 4 (54.8% rate). For reference, the highest average rate of Cover 4 for the 2024 season was just 25.6%, and the 2nd highest rate in any individual game during the 2024 season. In the super Bowl, this led to some poor numbers for Mahomes, including a 5.16 ANY/A and just 71.9% catchable throw rate. Against Cover 4 specifically, the numbers were even worse, with an abysmal 2.40 ANY/A and 62.5% catchable throw rate.
In the 2024 season in general, Mahomes really dropped off in efficiency against Cover 4, sinking from 19th→31st ANY/A and 13th→23rd in catchable throw rate. He also dipped from 0.45→0.39 fantasy points per dropback.
In general, the Eagles were so elite defensively last year, leading the NFL in EPA/DB and yards per attempt allowed. I really struggle to see Mahomes thriving in any capacity in this environment, considering the lack of weapons and the defense. I’ll fade him very comfortably at $6.2k, and smash the under on his 243.5 passing yard o/u.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor
After a cakewalk matchup against the Dolphins in Week 1, things could be much tougher for Taylor this week against Denver. The Broncos were the best defense in the NFL per EPA/Play in 2024, and 4th best in EPA/Rush. They allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy production on the ground in the NFL last year. Taylor is not much of a tackle-evader at this point (0.11 MTF/Att in 2024), as he more so thrives picking up yards before contact (5th most YBCo/Att) and creating explosives. Unfortunately for Taylor, the Broncos were elite preventing yards before contact, allowing the fewest YBCo/Att in the NFL last year.
The Broncos were equally elite stopping zone rushes specifically last year, as they allowed the 2nd lowest YPC (3.58) and the single lowest success rate (34.5%) against these rushes. In Week 1, over 60% of his rushes came in the form of zone concepts.
The Colts have just the 6th lowest implied team total of the week (20 points) and are +5.5 underdogs, indicating that scoring opportunities and rushing production could be low. Taylor also has minimal receiving role (less than 20 receptions each of last 2 seasons), so a negative game script will not do him any justice. I’m fading in DFS, and would take the under on his 76.5 rushing yard o/u.
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