Welcome to the Week 3 “Players To Fade” article. This is a position-by-position breakdown of players that I’m expecting to underperform their expectations (projected fantasy points or betting lines), based off their matchup and environment for this week. Like the smash article from earlier today, we’ll start with QB before going through a few RBs and WRs, and then ending with TE.
The players below are all specifically a part of the Sunday Main Slate games (1pm and 4pm EST). If I’m fading any other guys this week, you will see a breakdown on them in the primetime game preview articles.
Note: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link, and if you’re interested in buying, use code DATAROMA at checkout for 15% off!
Quarterback
Bo Nix
Nix has not gotten off to the start many were hoping for in his sophomore season, as he has a pedestrian 5.5 yards per attempt (29th/34 QBs), a 70% catchable throw rate (30th), and has already thrown 3 INTs. I suspect things could remain difficult in Week 3 against the Chargers. The Chargers have been elite defensively this year, coming in at 5th in EPA/Play, 4th in EPA/DB, and leading the NFL in PFF coverage grade.
The Chargers also run a lot of 2-high (and Cover 4), which Nix struggled against in 2024. See below for his numbers against these (from Week 5 on when he “broke out”), in comparison to his overall numbers:
Vs. All Coverages: 7.26 YPA (15th), 4.1% CPOE (10th), 77.4% Catchable % (5th)
Vs. 2-High: 6.30 YPA (25th), 3.7% CPOE (17th), 75.4% Catchable % (14th)
Vs. Cover 4: 5.66 YPA (30th), 2.6% CPOE (21st), 65.9% Catchable % (35th)
As you can see, Nix struggled against 2-high, and really struggled when that 2-high look ended up being Cover 4. In a game where his top weapon (Sutton) could be limited by the same coverages (see below), I don’t love the outlook here. Tack on the Chargers being one of the best defenses in the NFL thus far, and his modest 217.5 passing yard o/u feels high. I’ll take the under there, and avoid in DFS as the 8th most expensive QB on the slate. There are plenty of cheaper options that have a better outlook at QB.
Running Back
Chase Brown
Despite some elite volume, the efficiency for Chase Brown has been brutal thus far. Through 2 games, he is averaging an abysmal 2.43 YPC and has generated zero explosive runs. This is large in part to a Cinci offensive line that has allowed him just 0.27 yards before contact per attempt, the 3rd lowest mark in the NFL. With Joe Burrow now out, things could get even worse in terms of offensive efficiency and TD equity. Minnesota, despite getting gashed last week against ATL, typically has a good rush defense (led NFL in EPA/Rush in 2024). With Van Ginkel looking likely to be back in the fold, this run defense should be strong once again.
In 2025, Minnesota has been shutting down man-gap concepts, allowing the 3rd fewest yards per carry to these. This is unfortunate for Brown, who has seen over 62% of his attempts come as gap concepts, the 5th highest rate in the league.
I don’t think Brown’s price has been downgraded enough with the Burrow injury. He still needs to reach 70 rushing yards to cross his o/u of 69.5, a number which he has not come relatively close in either of his 2025 performances. He’s also the 7th most expensive RB on the DK main slate, which feels like a bad play due to what feels like limited upside.
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